The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals on April 1, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC 10.
The Phillies are favored by -260 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (-118) on the run line. The Nationals are +215 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-118) on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs (-115 / -105).
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction
- Nationals vs Phillies Pick: Phillies ML (-275 or Better) | Phillies F5 ML (-260 or Better) | Under 8 (+100 or Better)
My Nationals vs Phillies best bet is on Philly to win in a low-scoring game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Phillies Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 8 -115o / -105u | +215 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 8 -115o / -105u | -260 |
- Nationals vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (-118), Nationals +1.5 (-102)
- Nationals vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-115 / -105)
- Nationals vs Phillies moneyline: Nationals +215, Phillies -260
Nationals vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| Cade Cavalli (RHP) | Stat | Cristopher Sanchez (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.91 / 2.89 | ERA / xERA | 0.00 / 1.01 |
| 2.92 / 4.14 | FIP / xFIP | -0.14 / 0.60 |
| 1.64 | WHIP | 0.50 |
| 11.8% | K-BB% | 47.6% |
| 66.7% | GB% | 63.6% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 119 |
| 106 | Location+ | 113 |
Nationals vs Phillies Preview, Projection
Nationals vs Phillies Picks
After a 2-3 start, and with an off-day on Thursday, I'd anticipate that the Phillies play their regular lineup (potentially with Rafael Marchan in for JT Realmuto) behind Cris Sanchez on Wednesday.
Last season's NL Cy Young runner-up seems primed to go up another level this season (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K in his opening day start against a solid Rangers lineup), provided the Phillies give Sanchez as many home starts as possible.
For his career, Sanchez has generated a 2.75 xFIP and a 21.8% K-BB at Citizens Bank Park, compared to marks of 3.54 and 12.3% on the road. That gap widened during his breakout 2025 campaign (2.43 xFIP, 26% K-BB at home; 3.09, 16.3% on the road).
I'm high on Cade Cavalli, a former first-round pick (No. 22 overall in 2020) who has flashed increasingly better stuff (104 Stuff+ in 2025, 108 in 2026, Location+ up from 97 to 106, botERA down from 4.22 to 3.59) since returning from multiple arm injuries that had kept him out of big league action since 2022.
Still, similar to the Braves-A's analysis, my projected gap between the starting pitchers (Sanchez and Cavalli) in weighted FIP (about 1.4 runs) is wider than the gap between the bullpens (about 0.9 runs). As a result, I show a bigger edge on the Phillies on the F5 ML than on the full-game ML — I'd bet them in the first half at -275 or better, or for the full game at -260 or better.
Additionally, this was one of the few projected overnight edges I showed on a total — I'd bet Under 8 at even money or better.
Pick: Phillies ML (-275 or Better) | Phillies F5 ML (-260 or Better) | Under 8 (+100 or Better)
