For my Wednesday MLB player props, I'll be looking into Casey Mize, Anthony Volpe, and Shohei Ohtani.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, October 1.
MLB Player Props for October 1, 2025
- Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110, DraftKings)
- Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (+156, DraftKings)
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-137, BetMGM)
Tigers vs Guardians Player Props: Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts
As expected, the Tigers and Guardians played another low-scoring game on Tuesday, in which aces Tarik Skubal and Gavin Williams combined for 22 strikeouts. Today I'll be backing Casey Mize as the Tigers look to advance to the ALDS. After earning his first All-Star selection, Mize had a rocky second half. However, he finished strong in September as he posted a 3.49 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 28 and 1/3 innings.
Mize ended the regular season with a career-high 139 strikeouts. He also struck out five or more batters in each of his last four starts. That includes three starts of eight or more strikeouts, including one against the Guardians. Mize fared very well against the Guardians this season, posting a 2.08 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 17 and 1/3 innings. He cleared this line in two of those three outings and in the one he didn't, he worked seven shutout innings while striking out four.
Despite Cleveland's miraculous run to retake the AL Central, it's not their offense that has led the way. Mize should pitch very well today, and he has added motivation after being left off last year's playoff roster. His outs recorded line is 14.5 today and if he goes five innings, I like his chances of recording at least five strikeouts.
Red Sox vs Yankees Player Props: Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
As he posted his third consecutive season with a sub .700 OPS, Anthony Volpe was a target of criticism once again. However, in 15 career playoff games, Volpe is slashing .300/.419/.481 with five extra-base hits and seven RBI. Last night, he provided the Yankees' only run with a solo home run in the second inning.
Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has had a lot of success against the Yankees this season, with a 1.89 ERA in three starts. However, Volpe is one hitter who has had his number over the last few years. Volpe is 6-for-17 (.353) with a double, a solo home run, and a .941 OPS against Bello. Right-handed hitters also fared slightly better against Bello in the regular season with a .243 opponent batting average.
Volpe finished the regular season hitting .289 over the last two weeks. With last night's home run, he has recorded two hits, runs, and RBI in each of his last three playoff games. If you prefer to play him for one Hit + HR + RBI at -156, he has cleared that in 11 of 15 playoff games.
Reds vs Dodgers Player Props: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases
By now, most people would agree that Shohei Ohtani has a flair for the dramatic. This is the player that reached the 50-50 plateau last season by going 6-6 with three home runs, 10 RBI, and two stolen bases in a single game. While a shoulder injury limited his impact in last year's postseason to some degree, he still posted a .767 OPS and hit three home runs. If last night's game was any indication, he appears to be at full strength.
Ohtani led off the bottom half of the first with a lead-off home run. He blasted another 454 feet in the sixth and finished 2-for-5 with RBI. Today, he will face Zack Littell, who has a posted a 3.81 ERA this season and which rose to 4.39 in 10 starts after being acquired by the Reds. Littell ranked in the 27th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, Average Exit Velocity, and Barrel Rate, so I am also expecting him to struggle today. He also allowed 16 home runs to left-handed hitters.
Littell has not seen much of the Dodgers, but collectively, L.A. has hit .258 with three home runs (two by Max Muncy) against him. Littell has not faced Shohei Ohtani, who blasted two home runs last night. Given Ohtani's metrics on Statcast, he is the most nightmarish matchup for Littell out of any of the Dodgers' hitters.
Ohtani hit 40 of his 55 home runs in the regular season against right-handed pitchers and added two more last night. He also added 17 doubles, five triples, and had a 1.076 OPS against them. With a righty on the mound tonight, I like Ohtani for two total bases once again. He has cleared this line in 10 of his last 13 games.
