White Sox vs. Brewers Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Lucas Giolito vs. Freddy Peralta (July 23)

White Sox vs. Brewers Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Lucas Giolito vs. Freddy Peralta (July 23) article feature image
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Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta.

  • The Chicago White Sox take on the Milwaukee Brewers in Friday's Major League Baseball action.
  • Freddy Peralta will take the mound for Brewers, who are in full control of the NL Central division race.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down this contest below and explains why he's backing Milwaukee to get past the AL Central front runner.

White Sox vs. Brewers Odds

White Sox Odds +110
Brewers Odds -130
Over/Under 7.5
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds as of Friday morning via DraftKings.

Major League Baseball division leaders meet for a highly anticipated weekend series, with the Chicago White Sox kicking things off against the Milwaukee Brewers in Friday’s opener.

The White Sox have opened up a big lead in the AL Central, currently sitting 8.5 games ahead of Cleveland. Now, Chicago is playing for the league’s top playoff seed, with it trailing Boston and Houston by just a few games.

Needless to say, the series against Milwaukee will be a good test to see if Chicago is a real World Series contender.

On the other side, the Brewers have taken complete control of the NL Central after a horrific losing streak from the Cubs. They’re now 6.5 games ahead of Cincinnati. Milwaukee’s starting pitching and bullpen are two of the best in all of baseball, but they will be put to the test when facing a top-five offense.

Offensive Matchup

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been one of the best lineups in baseball, mainly due to the fact they hit both right- and left-handed pitching well. Against righties, they rank fifth with a .331 wOBA and 111 wRC+, plus they’re also the fifth-best team against fastballs.

So, they’re going be a very difficult matchup for Freddy Peralta, who is mainly a fastball pitcher.

However, Chicago is dealing with a lot of injuries at the moment, as Yasmani Grandal, Nick Madrigal, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert currently on the injured list. That said, we will see how good its lineup is against one of the best young pitchers in the National League.

Milwaukee Brewers

Despite having the fourth-best record in baseball, Milwaukee actually doesn’t hit right-handed pitching that well. It has a .303 wOBA and 88 wRC+, which is 19th best in baseball.

However, they’ll have a good matchup against Giolito, because the two pitches the Brewers have had the most success against are fastballs and changeups, which are Giolito’s main pitches that he goes to more than 80% of the time.

Starting Pitching Matchup

Lucas Giolito vs. Freddy Peralta

2021 Stats (via Fangraphs)

White Sox Starting Pitcher

Lucas Giolito, RHP

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Giolito is having another tremendous season for the White Sox, posting a 3.38 xERA and 3.67 xFIP. Yet, he’s having issues with the long ball, as his HR/9 rate is all the way up 1.51, which is his highest mark since 2017. His hard-hit percentage is also up at 36.1%, which is eighth-highest mark among qualified starting pitchers.

He’s been very effective with his off speed pitches, as his changeup, slider and curveball are allowing an xwOBA under .250. However, he’s been really struggling with his fastball, which is allowing an xwOBA of .357. That’s a problem since he goes to it 44.9% of the time, and its the pitch Milwaukee has had the most success against this season.

Milwaukee Brewers

Freddy Peralta, RHP

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

If you haven’t been paying close attention, you might not have noticed, but Freddy Peralta has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. His 2.62 xERA and 12.40 K/9 rate are two of the finest marks among qualified starting pitchers. The reason he’s been so good is due to the fact he has complete control of his entire arsenal.

Peralta mainly uses a fastball/slider combination and he’s been incredibly effective with both pitches, which are allowing a wOBA under .280. He has also established a whiff rate of more than 30% and racked up 123 strikeouts, while only conceding 36 hits.

He’ll need to utilize his slider a lot, because that’s one of the pitches the White Sox have struggled against the most this season.

Bullpen/Defensive Matchup

What is so intriguing about this series is these are two of the best bullpens in all of baseball. Both teams are top 10 in terms of ERA, xFIP and BB/9 rate, so it will be interesting to see who prevails in the series.

White Sox-Brewers Pick

Since the Brewers offense has a good matchup against Giolito from a pitch mix stand point and the White Sox offense has a ton of injury concerns, I am going to back the Brewers on the moneyline at DraftKings as my top selection.

Pick: Brewers ML (-130)

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