Yankees vs. Rays Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: ALDS Game 5 (Oct. 9)


Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole

  • The New York Yankees are favored over the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 of the ALDS Friday night (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • With Gerrit Cole taking on Tyler Glasnow, the total has been set at just 7.5 runs. So how should you approach the matchup of aces?
  • Mike Vitanza shares his analysis and betting pick below.

Yankees vs. Rays Game 5 Odds

Yankees Odds -150 [Bet Now]
Rays Odds +130 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-121) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 7:10 p.m. ET

Odds via PointsBet, where you can bet $20 and win $125 if the Yankees get at least one hit tonight.

With their backs against the wall, the New York Yankees secured a 5-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays to tie the American League Division Series at two games apiece on Thursday night.

The Yankees offense had multi-hit games out of DJ LeMahieu, Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres and Kyle Higashioka to pace the offense. They also had a big home run by Luke Voit in the second inning off of Ryan Thompson in the second inning. Torres also added a two-run home run in the sixth inning that ultimately proved to be the final nail in the coffin for Tampa Bay.

The Rays, meanwhile, managed just three hits in Game 4 in what was a very strong outing by starter Jordan Montgomery and the Yankees bullpen. Chad Green, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman combined for five shutout innings to close it out.

The Yankees will turn to their ace Gerrit Cole to seal a series victory, while the Rays will look to righty Tyler Glasnow on two days’ rest to help the Rays earn an ALCS berth.

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New York Yankees

Gerrit Cole was effective in his Game 1 start against the Rays, pitching six innings while allowing three earned runs and striking out eight. More importantly for the Yankees, though, they won that game.

Throughout his career, Cole has excelled during the postseason, pitching to a 3.11 FIP and striking out batters at an impressive 11.3 K/9 rate. He’s also been the victor in eight of 12 possible starts, limiting opposing batters to a .186 average in those games.

He did struggle a bit against the Rays during the regular season, though. Over three starts, he pitched to a 4.96 ERA — including five home runs — and allowed a .294 average to Rays hitters.

Overall, the Rays .319 wOBA against right-handed pitching was about league-average during the regular season.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays will turn to Tyler Glasnow on just two days’ rest and hope he can limit the big bats of this Yankees lineup. Glasnow struggled in his Game 2 start, allowing four earned runs — including two home runs — over four innings pitched. He was otherwise effective, though, striking out ten batters in what was ultimately an abbreviated outing.

Glasnow has struggled overall in his postseason career. In four total starts, he’s pitched to a 5.09 FIP and allowed 2.5 HR/9, numbers that are both substantially higher than his career averages of 4.08 and 1.3, respectively.

The Yankees were one of the best teams in baseball during the regular season against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .349 wOBA, .208 ISO and 122 wRC+ in such matchups.

Betting Pick

Both starting pitchers will be coming back on short rest, and Rays starter Tyler Glasnow will be taking the mound after just two full days on the mend.

Gerrit Cole had issues with the Rays in the regular season and just allowed three earned runs against them in Game 1, while Tyler Glasnow has struggled both recently against the Yankees and overall in his postseason career. Both bullpens have also proven susceptible so far in this series.

The over/under of 7.5 would be better tailored to two aces at the top of their game on normal rest. That is not the case tonight.

I expect both offenses to get on the board early and to continue a back-and-forth affair until the very end. I’m comfortable risking a unit on Over 7.5 and would play it up to 8.

The PICK: Over 7.5 (+100)

Bet $20 on the Yankees and win $125 if they get at least one hit tonight.

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