The Detroit Tigers host the Boston Red Sox on May 4, 2026. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on DSN.
The Tigers are favored by -240 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +194 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Tigers Prediction
- Red Sox vs Tigers Pick: Red Sox ML (+194)
My Red Sox vs Tigers best bet is on Boston to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Tigers Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 7 -102o / -118u | +194 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 7 -102o / -118u | -240 |
- Red Sox vs Tigers moneyline: Red Sox +194, Tigers -240
- Red Sox vs Tigers over/under: 7 (-102o / -118u)
- Red Sox vs Tigers spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-122), Tigers -1.5 (+102)
Red Sox vs Tigers Probable Pitchers
| LHP Payton Tolle (BOS) | Stat | LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 3.38/1.80 | ERA / xERA | 2.70/3.18 |
| 2.96/3.20 | FIP / xFIP | 2.16/2.60 |
| 23.8% | K-BB% | 23.5% |
| 28.6% | GB% | 41.0% |
| .238 | BABIP | .295 |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 116 |
| 84 | Location+ | 107 |
Red Sox vs Tigers MLB Betting Preview
Red Sox vs Tigers Pick, Betting Analysis
In a year of disarray, the Red Sox took another tough loss on Sunday to the Astros. They now have a 13-21 record and a 3-4 record since firing Alex Cora.
Taking the ball in the series opener is flamethrowing southpaw Payton Tolle. Tolle began the year in the minors but provided a spark to the Red Sox with a strong six innings, one-run showing with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees. He followed that up with a dicey three-run outing in 4 2/3 innings against Toronto.
So, what changed from one start to the next for Tolle? His velo dipped dramatically against Toronto, and so did his command. It was his first MLB start on regular rest, but he's on six days' rest heading into Monday's outing. I expect a better showing than Tolle had last Tuesday.
Hitting is the main issue for Boston, as it ranks just 28th in MLB with an 83 wRC+. Familiarize yourself with that number 28, which also represents Boston's spot in home runs and ISO.
They have just two qualified players with a wRC+ better than 90 — Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras. One name missing from that list is Roman Anthony. With all the hoopla of his WBC performance and his lofty prospect status, it's easy to forget that Anthony is just 21 years old. Boston put the future of the org in his hands, and he has a 92 wRC+ and is hitting .233.
The Tigers are right in the mix for first place in the AL Central, tied with the Guardians. In this series, the Tigers are playing in Detroit, where they boast a 12-3 record this season.
It must feel nice to have a back-to-back CY Young, like Tarik Skubal taking the ball every fifth day.
However, he hasn't been as dominant this year. He maintains a very strong 2.70 ERA with a 3.19 xERA and a 2.16 FIP. Teams are hitting Skubal harder this year, as he sits in the 31st percentile in xBA, hard hit rate, and 36th in average exit velocity.
Last year, Skubal sat in the 90th percentile or better in all three categories. His fastball velocity is also a full tick down, which could play a role in the increase in poor batted ball numbers.
The Tigers hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching, but they're no slouches against southpaws. They rank 13th in wRC+ versus lefties and lead the league with a 13.9% walk rate. Riley Greene has struggled to hit lefties at times, but he leads the Tigers with a 175 wRC+ against them.
We'll see just how good this Tigers team is against lefties long-term. Greene is unlikely to sustain such elite numbers, and the only other hitter with a wRC+ better than 110 is Spencer Torkleson. No doubt, Detroit is a less lethal team when Kerry Carpenter is on the bench, and he still hasn't earned AJ Hinch's trust in left-on-left matchups.
The Red Sox are certainly a mess, but Skubal might be a bit fade-worthy here with Boston sitting as +194 underdogs. He's a brilliant pitcher, but the hard-hit numbers make him more susceptible to a rough outing than he was in the past two seasons.
Plus, Tolle is a monster. I expect him to shut this Detroit offense down with his high velocity four-seamer.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+194, play to +135)
