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Thursday MLB Betting Odds, Preview, Prediction for Yankees vs. Red Sox: Value With Boston in AL East Clash (July 22)

Thursday MLB Betting Odds, Preview, Prediction for Yankees vs. Red Sox: Value With Boston in AL East Clash (July 22) article feature image

Kathryn Riley/Getty Images. Pictured: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck.

  • The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees kick off their series Thursday at Fenway Park.
  • The Yankees started the year 0-7 against the Red Sox prior to beaten the Red Sox twice last weekend.
  • Anthony Dabbundo takes a look at the game below and details where he likes favored Boston.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

Yankees Odds +120
Red Sox Odds -140
Over/Under 9.5
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds as of Thursday morning via DraftKings.

Despite all of the injuries to their lineup, the New York Yankees have won four consecutive games entering another series with the Boston Red Sox this weekend at Fenway Park.

The Yankees started the year 0-7 against the Red Sox prior to winning last Saturday and Sunday, and they’ll need to take this series to cut into Boston’s seven-game division lead on them.

New York might have won that aforementioned series, but Boston is undervalued in this game at home. The Yankees struggle against right-handed pitching and the Red Sox will have now seen New York starter Jordan Montgomery three times in the last month.

Questions Surrounding Yankees’ Taxed Bullpen

The Yankees were forced to use many of their bullpen arms in a 10-inning win against Philadelphia on Wednesday. It’s not clear which high-leverage relievers are going to be available besides Chad Green. They’ll need length from Montgomery, who did provide six-inning starts in his first two games against Boston, allowing three runs each time.

Montgomery’s numbers across the board are respectable, featuring a 4.15 xERA, 3.70 FIP and 4.10 xFIP. His hard-hit rate allowed from past years is up, but his home runs allowed per nine innings are down because fewer of his fly balls are leaving the ballpark. That’s a concerning sign for Montgomery against a Red Sox lineup with a lot of pop.

New York managed six runs in both games against Philadelphia, as it used more small ball, base stealing and movement of runners to manufacture runs. Still, most of New York’s numbers against right-handers are mediocre.

The Yankees are 19th in wRC+; 17th in ISO; and, 21st in strikeout rate. Against a pitcher in Tanner Houck who doesn’t allow walks, it’ll be hard for them to generate offense.

Red Sox Hitters Shining Against Southpaws

Boston is top five offensively in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, top five in ISO and sixth in wOBA. The Red Sox offense is good against any type of pitcher, but they’ve especially found success against southpaws.

Montgomery is one lefty they haven’t done a ton of damage against in the last two starts, but did have traffic on the base paths in both games.

Houck, who gets the start for Boston, has allowed a .201 xBA against this season. He has an xERA, FIP and xFIP under 3, plus he has cut his walk rate significantly from his debut last year.

Houck has only made two starts, but did finish the July 16 game against New York with three shutdown innings to earn a save. He isn’t going to go deep in this game, but he can get through the order twice before turning it over to Boston’s bullpen.

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Yankees-Red Sox Pick

The Yankees improved entering the All-Star break and have now won four of five since play resumed after it. However, their bullpen is taxed, the Red Sox have seen a lot of Montgomery in the last month and Houck is underrated given his peripheral pitching numbers.

That said, it’s a good spot to sell high on New York after a good stretch of wins. 

Pick: Boston ML (-150 or better)

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