MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Yankees vs. Tigers: Bet on New York to Bounce Back (Tuesday, April 19)
Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees
- The Yankees are road favorites on Tuesday against the Tigers.
- After an embarrassing loss to the Orioles on Sunday, can Gerrit Cole lead the Yankees to a bounce back win?
- Nick Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Yankees vs. Tigers Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||6:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Yankees will send Gerrit Cole to the mound, hoping their ace can get the season moving in the right direction after an embarrassing series finale Sunday against Baltimore.
The Tigers have gotten off to a slow start as well, with a 4-5 record alongside a -12 Run Differential. The Tigers have had lots of bad pitching so far this season, and Tyler Alexander’s first start of the season did not help things.
Can the Yankees get right Tuesday, or will we see Cole’s struggles in life after the “sticky stuff” continue?
Can Cole Bounce Back for the Yankees?
All of the offseason concerns for the New York Yankees have come to fruition early on this season. Their lack of contact and inability to do the little things effectively at the plate were exposed against the Orioles on Sunday.
Cole pitching ineffectively would be a massive new problem, and we saw the Blue Jays get to Cole for three earned runs Wednesday as they handed him a no-decision, with an xERA of 4.65.
However, Cole’s stuff looked really good, and if not for Vladdy Jr. hitting two balls out of the park on pitches that simply are not supposed to be taken deep, we might have seen Cole manage a really dominant outing.
Cole holds an elite QOPA of 4.92 so far this season, and considering league average is 4.35, that’s a firm sign that his stuff is right there. It was clear that he could have fared much better vs. the Blue Jays Wednesday, and I think he’ll find better success Tuesday.
The Yankees hit left-handed pitching well last year, with a wRC+ of 110 and a wOBA of .330. They will get a chance to build on that here against Alexander.
Tigers Struggling Against Righties
The Tigers have struggled at the plate and on the mound to start the season, but they have one more win than expected at 4-5.
The Tigers have managed a wRC+ of 82 with a .280 wOBA in 321 plate appearances so far this season. ZiPS projected this Tigers order to produce the league’s fifth-lowest offensive output this season, and they have lived down to that expectation so far.
Against righties, the Tigers have fared even worse, with a wRC+ of just 64 and a .254 wOBA.
Alexander pitched to a 3.67 xERA in his first start against the Red Sox, with a strong 4.62 QOPA. He was a quietly reasonable option last season with a 4.30 xERA, with an excellent Walk Rate of just 6.2%.
Since 2019, Alexander has allowed a SLG% of .505 to right-handed batters, which is certainly not encouraging for Tigers fans as he will face a righty-heavy heart of this Yankees order.
Cole should bounce back and dominate the Tigers Tuesday, giving the Yankees a pitching advantage in the first five innings.
Even with how frustrating parts of this Yankees lineup have looked at times this year, they are going to find better results moving forward. They hit lefties effectively last season, and I think we see New York’s boom-or-bust bats have a good start to this contest.
Admittedly, I lost on a similar angle Sunday when Nestor Cortes’ dominant outing went with zero run support through five innings, but the Yankees bats will find somewhat of a breakthrough early on against Alexander here. Expect two Yankees runs through the first five innings to win us this bet.
Back the Yankees to cover -0.5 in the first five innings, and I would play it down to -130.
Pick: New York Yankees First 5 Innings -0.5 (-125) | Play to -130