Thursday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Yankees vs. White Sox: Back Dylan Cease and the Hot Chicago Bats (May 12)
Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84).
- The White Sox are home favorites against the Yankees on Thursday night.
- With red hot Dylan Cease on the mound, will the league-leading Yankees have success at the dish?
- Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Yankees vs. White Sox Odds
|White Sox Odds||-145|
|Over/Under||7.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The evil empire is back on top for the moment as the New York Yankees will enter this matchup with the best record in baseball. They have won eight of their last 10, but they may have met their match here.
After a rough first few weeks of the season, the Chicago White Sox have hit their stride lately. They also come into this game as winners of eight of their last 10 and are in a great spot to add to that record as they’ll have a blossoming young arm on the mound.
However, White Sox starter Dylan Cease will certainly not be the youngest arm on the mound as the Yankees have recalled No. 12 prospect Luis Gil to make his first start of 2022. The 23-year-old was solid in his cup of coffee last season as he made six starts, pitched to a 3.07 ERA and maintained an 11.66 K/9.
With two hot lineups and two quality arms, something has to give. So let’s dive in to find out how this one will play out.
Cease to Stifle Yankees’ Bats
New York’s hot start has been fueled by its offense. The Bronx Bombers will enter this game second in wRC+, but they have yet to face the newest version of Dylan Cease.
Cease looks to have finally realized his potential here in 2022 as he’s off to a torrid start. He’ll enter in the top five percent of the league in Average Exit Velocity, Hard-Hit rate, and essentially every other expected statistic.
His stuff has reached a new level this year as his uptick in breaking ball usage combined with a slight mechanical adjustment to give him more extension off the mound has made him extremely difficult to square up.
For all the production that we have seen from the Yankees lineup this far, they still have plenty of swing and miss as they are 16th in the league in Strikeout Rate.
Overall, the Yanks are capable of getting to Cease, but he should contain them and keep rallies to a minimum as they will have a tough time stringing together hits. Unfortunately for them, this game won’t be in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, so most average fly balls will be outs instead of landing in the first row.
Gil to be Tested Early by Sox
I touched on Gil’s success in the handful of starts that he made last season; however, the low ERA and strikeouts cover that when teams made contact, it was generally solid.
Gil had an Average Exit Velocity of 89.8 last season, and if that trend carries over to this year, he could be in trouble against the top of the White Sox order.
Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, and even Leury Garcia have combined to lead the White Sox on their current stretch. Abreu, Robert, and Anderson all have Hard-Hit Rates above 45 percent and well-below average Strikeout Rates. But, believe it or not, the hottest bat in the order belongs to Garcia, who is hitting .400 over the last seven games.
Gil will face each of these guys multiple times early on. How their at-bats go will set the tone for the type of outing that Gill will have. If underlying numbers hold, the Sox could very well get on the board early.
Yankees-White Sox Pick
This is a rare spot where two of the hottest teams in baseball will square off, and we actually get to see the strengths of each team decide the outcome. However, the edge lies with the White Sox in this one. This season, Cease has been untouchable, and I don’t see the Yankees changing that on the road.
On the other side, the White Sox bats have been good enough to rack up wins, but their underlying stats show that the top of their order is ready to break out, and it could come against the inexperienced Gil in the early going.
Back the White Sox to get the job done here.
Pick: White Sox -144
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