Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat MuzakanovOdds
| Rakic Odds | |
| Murzakanov Odds | |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120/-110) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Dubai UAE |
| Bout Time | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 321 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 321 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Muzakanov prediction for UFC 321on Saturday, October 25, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Aleksander Rakic was easy to project as a future title contender just a few years ago, but a knee injury and inactivity have led to a much different outlook at age 33. His opponent on Saturday, 36-year-old Azamat Murzakanov, is the one with the hype and momentum behind him usually reserved for young prospects on the ascension. This matchup is undoubtedly a difficult handicap, but let’s dive in to reveal which side presents value.
Here's my Rakic vs. Muzakanov pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Rakic | Murzakanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-5 | 15-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:26 | 8:38 |
| Height | 6'4" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/6/1992 | 4/12/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.16 | 4.93 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.91 | 2.86 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| TD Acc | 23% | 15% |
| TD Def | 85% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0 |
Rakic has entered the octagon just three times over the last three and half years. All of those fights have resulted in defeat, but each of those were at the hands of former light heavyweight champions or title challengers. This is a step down in competition for Rakic and some of the changes he has made, including where he is training heading into this fight, lead me to believe he is ready to give Murzakanov his first loss in MMA.
Murzakanov is a powerhouse looking to press forward in a quest to exchange in the pocket and make quick work of his opponent. He is highly dangerous and has shown the ability to close the show in spectacular fashion, but I am skeptical it is going to be an easy task to replicate that damage against the toughest opponent he’s faced in Rakic.
Murzakanov is vastly undersized for the division, while Rakic has the ideal build and size for a man cutting to 205 pounds. Rakic is six inches taller and will have the benefit of a seven inch reach advantage. The key to this fight will be the range it takes place, as Murzakanov will want to close the distance and exchange at boxing range.
Rakic’s durability is starting to come into question and he does not look comfortable when his opponents make him fight at such a close distance. The good news for the Rakic camp heading into this matchup is that he already possesses all of the tools needed to fight the kind of fight he needs to get his hand raised.
Rakic has a very dangerous kicking game, and while low kicks may not be as effective here due to Murzakanov’s southpaw stance, it is still a tool he can use to rack up strikes landed at distance. Rakic also has the athleticism and technical prowess to make life difficult for the undefeated Russian. Make no mistake, Murzakanov has yet to face an opponent the caliber of Rakic.
I wasn’t overly impressed by Rakic in his most recent outing versus former light heavyweight champion Magomed Ankaleav, but it was notable that he won the first round on all three judges’ scorecards by being the more active fighter. Rakic cannot let Murzakanov dictate the early portion of this fight, because if there is one fighter more likely to slow down as the bout progresses it’s undoubtedly Murzakanov.
Murzakanov has only had one fight go the distance in his UFC career and that was against another tall light heavyweight in Dustin Jacoby. Murzakanov won a unanimous decision but landed just 70 total strikes to Jacoby’s 96, and in the third round it was all Jacoby, as he was even able to drag the gassed Murzakanov to the mat.
Oddsmakers are listing this fight as a near coin flip to go the distance, which is telling in my estimation. Murzakanov’s win condition probably involves him getting an early finish in the first 7 minutes, whereas Rakic will very often win the third round if the fight gets extended.
I expect Rakic to use a measured approach that puts a huge emphasis on fighting at the distance he is most effective. If Murzakanov is over-aggressive in closing the distance, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rakic use his wrestling. If he can land an opportune takedown on Murzakanov, Rakic has the ability to smother him with his size and wear him down.
Rakic vs. Murzakanov Pick, Prediction
Murzakanov is getting a little too much credit in the betting market given the competition he has looked dominant against.
This fight could play out in a variety of ways, but getting the much larger man who has been in the octagon with many of the world’s best at near pick em’ odds gives me confidence that the fighter that opened as an underdog is the value side on Saturday in Abu Dhabi.
John's Pick: Aleksander Rakic -110 (Caesars)
