Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos Odds
| Rosas Odds | -142 |
| Barcelos Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 121 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 121 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos prediction for UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday, September 26, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
After losing his second UFC fight, Raul Rosas now carries a five-fight win streak into the Octagon, a few years after making history by winning a Contender Series fight and signing with the UFC before his 18th birthday. Now he gets a big step up in Raoni Barcelos, a 39-year-old who himself comes in on a five-fight winning streak.
This is the first five-round fight for Rosas, who has struggled with cardio late in his three-round fights. His ability to adapt to a 25-minute fight might be the determining factor for him ever challenging for a title, and we will get our first chance to see how he holds up under those conditions this weekend.
Here's my Rosas vs. Barcelos pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Rosas | Barcelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-1 | 22-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:45 | 13:01 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 67" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/08/2004 | 05/01/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.34 | 4.65 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.24 | 4.24 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.10 | 2.51 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 31% |
| TD Def | 25% | 87% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.7 |
As I try to point out whenever discussing Raul Rosas, the crucial word is "yet." Rosas hasn't finished any opponents in the second half of a fight — yet. He hasn't truly hurt anyone on the ground despite his top control — yet. Still a few days shy of his 22nd birthday, handicapping for Rosas is hard, because it requires a heavy amount of projecting forward.
We've never had a fighter this young competing at these levels before, so there's not much of an established age curve we can follow with "El Nino Problema." That's especially true now that he's slowed down the pace of his bookings. Rosas competed in the Octagon (including Contender Series) four times in his first 12 months with the promotion, then just four times over the next three years.
That's a wise move from the young fighter and/or his team. He's a decade or more away from any physical decline, so there's no need to speed run a path to a title. Longer gaps between fights allows him to develop his skills beyond just game planning for a specific opponent, which is sorely needed for Rosas. He clearly has elite grappling talent, but has been extremely one-dimensional so far in his UFC run.
As an example, Rosas landed twice as many takedowns (16) as he did significant strikes against Rob Font in his last fight. He spent enough of that fight in dominant positions to eke out a decision, but failing to land a single significant strike on the ground with more than 10 minutes of control time isn't a sustainable game plan. Stronger defensive grapplers than Font can steal a round back with just a few strikes on the feet if Rosas doesn't do more with his takedowns.
That's what makes the matchup with former Brazilian national wrestling champion Raoni Barcelos so intriguing. Barcelos has been taken down just five times in 15 UFC fights, with relatively limited control time and damage from his opponents. He's also used his wrestling to derail a young bantamweight prospect once on his current run, in handing Payton Talbott his first career loss.
He's also 39, and likely to be a half step slower every time we see him in the Octagon. He's surprisingly never been in a five-round UFC fight either, though he had a pair of 25-minute bouts on the regional scene. Those are more than a decade old at this point, and probably not especially relevant.
Barcelos is the clear better striker here, and my read is that this fight will come down to whether or not he can do enough damage on the feet before/between Rosas takedowns. In the smaller Apex cage, it seems unlikely he'll be able to fully stop Rosas from getting him to the mat, but the BJJ black belt can likely limit the amount of damage he takes while he's there.
The cardio dynamic could also decide this fight. Typically, this is where I'd side with the younger fighter, but Rosas' style of spamming takedown attempts is very draining, and Barcelos will likely use less energy defending/escaping than Rosas uses offensively, which should give him the edge in a longer fight, should we get there.
Rosas vs. Barcelos Pick, Prediction
The biggest problem for Rosas in this fight is that I don't see a way for him to finish it. Unless his ground and pound has leveled up massively since his fight with Font in March, he doesn't have a clear path to a stoppage against Barcelos, who is defensively sound and very durable.
With the line moving towards Barcelos, I think we can do better than a straight up moneyline pick, though.
I'm splitting my exposure between Raul Rosas Over 3.5 takedowns at -115 odds — a bet I gave out at +100 via the Action Network Discord earlier this week — and a live bet on Barcelos. I fully expect Rosas to land some takedowns here, with his success mostly front-loaded. If he's able to finish or hurt Barcelos early, we won't place the live bet in the first place, but if he doesn't (but controls a round or two), we'll get a much better price on the Brazilian prior to him taking over later in the fight.
Billy's Picks: Rosas Over 3.5 Takedowns -115 (DraftKings) | Barcelos Live
