Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez Odds
| Dumont Odds | +136 |
| Perez Odds | -162 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-540/+360) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 121 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 121 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez prediction for UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday, September 26, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The newly minted co-headliner in Las Vegas features a Top 5 showdown between women's bantamweights Norma Dumont and Ailin Perez. Dumont, who had her six-fight winning streak snapped in her last outing at the Apex by Joselyne Edwards, will now look to pay that forward by ruining the six-fight streak that Perez has amassed.
Apparently, these two ladies have some deep-seated drama that goes well beyond the booking of this fight, so motivation will likely not be a factor we have to worry about for either fighter.
Here's my Dumont vs. Perez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Dumont | Perez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:53 | 12:41 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 10/01/1990 | 10/05/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.85 | 2.88 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.33 | 1.58 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.43 | 4.90 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 49% |
| TD Def | 71% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.2 |
From a stylistic perspective, both fighters come from wushu sanda backgrounds, but enforce their games in different ways.
Although each woman can hit the kick-catch counters that are commonly associated with sanda practitioners, Dumont is the more willing striker with a more natural flow on the feet.
Despite keeping a lower output and still looking tepid on some of her boxing commitments, Dumont will steadily work her way into range off of feints and serviceable lead hand. When feeling in stride, Dumont will attach kicks to her combos that range from sidekicks to leg kicks (as I suspect that the latter will serve her well against Perez).
Seldom turning down an opportunity to clinch, Dumont is more than happy to enforce her presence in the form of takedowns and top control in matchups where she's the bigger and better grappler. That said, Dumont will be facing a rare opponent who can more than hold a candle to her size and skills in these spaces.
A physical fighter in every sense of the word, Perez appears to know exactly where her bread is buttered as a competitor.
Even though Perez has appeared to have made solid pacing and striking improvements since working with The GOAT Shed Academy, the 31-year-old still smartly keeps her game geared to her strengths.
From pressuring with strikes when the situation calls for it to hitting reactionary takedowns off the counter, Perez is constantly mixing up her looks and levels. And despite this probably sounding like an excuse to reference Perez's more known features, the Argentinian truly has a solid understanding of how to make hips work in her favor.
Whether she's hitting hip bumps to takedowns on out-of-position opponents or outright hoisting girls in the air, Perez has quietly developed into one of the most effective wrestlers in her weight class. Perez's finishing game appears to still be developing, but her positional grappling and strikes in closed quarters are something that her contemporaries will need to respect.
Dumont vs. Perez Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public favor the Argentinian fighter, with Perez's moneyline drifting as far as -165 after opening around -130.
Despite Dumont having a standout record in the Apex of 7-1, the 35-year-old has had a nasty habit of having close and sweaty affairs regardless of the perceived level. And though Dumont is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt who spent her last few camps at Chute Boxe Diego Lima, her game, which was already low output, has seemingly plateaued in recent years.
Whereas Perez, despite being more known for her post-fight twerking, has quietly fashioned herself into a legit wrestling contender who can fairly consistently enforce her game. And as far as the emotional component to this contest goes, I also give Perez an edge there as well.
As the old saying goes, "the one who gets mad loses," and Dumont appears to be awfully mad headed into this fight.
'Bad blood' matchups, oddly enough, also traditionally produce lower-than-usual outputs from each combatant, hence the even more inflated-than-usual overs on this women's MMA bout. I don't blame anyone for taking a stab on the underdog when there was more meat on the bone, but this steady market move to the Perez side is now arguably offering a discount for those who thought the initial favorite opened too pricey.
As for me, I'm not one to let public money scare me off a side, and I believe that Perez's style, particularly inside the smaller octagon, is well worth a discounted straight shot at anything south of -170.
Dan's Pick: Ailin Perez -162 (FanDuel)
