Ateba Gautier vs. Roman Kopylov Odds
| Gautier Odds | -258 |
| Kopylov Odds | +210 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-175/+135) |
| Location | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah |
| Bout Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 332 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 332 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Ateba Gautier vs. Roman Kopylov prediction for UFC 332 on Saturday, October 3, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Most of the highly-regarded prospects on UFC 332 find themselves in what I would consider "showcase fights" this weekend, intended to let them shine in front of a (hopefully) large audience. One exception to that rule is Ateba "Somebody That I Used To Know" Gautier, who gets the toughest test of his career is he faces veteran Roman Kopylov in the main card opener. Can Gautier improve his UFC record to 6-0, or will Kopylov prove to be too much of a step up?
Here's my Gautier v.s Kopylov pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Gautier | Kopylov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-1 | 15-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:06 | 12:16 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 81" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 04/10/2004 | 05/04/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.32 | 4.54 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.60 | 5.08 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.41 | 1.12 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 50% |
| TD Def | 93% | 88% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Gautier, along with fellow UFC 332 fighter Damian Pinas, has made a massive splash since joining the UFC. Both are massive middleweights with huge power who have run through lower-level middleweights with quick knockouts in nearly every win, but are still relatively raw from a skills standpoint.
Gautier's only mild struggle so far came in his fight against Andrey Pulayev, who out-struck Gautier 59 to 34 but was dropped twice along the way, leading to a decision win for Gautier. Interestingly, Pulayev is facing Pinas this time around.
That aside, I've noticed more flaws in the game of Gautier than that of Pinas, with the former still spending part of his training time at home in Cameroon — though he does fight camps at Manchester Top Team. While he eventually picked up a fairly easy second-round knockout against Ozzy Diaz, Diaz was able to get deep on shots a few times, which Gautier defended with pure athleticism.
Perhaps more importantly for this fight, the southpaw Pulayev was able to tag Gautier with a lot of jabs and straight lefts, and consistently won the front-foot battle by circling away from Gautier's power and outside of his lead foot. Gautier always has the cheat code of massive power, but he was tagged often in that matchup.
Those are both relevant for his fight with Kopylov, who comes from a Combat Sambo background but is mainly known as a striker. Kopylov is a very competent grappler/wrestler, who has landed takedowns in four of his last five fights — including five against Cesar Almeida, a former kickboxer that Kopylov was able to control for long stretches on the ground. Almeida is nowhere near the athlete that Gautier is, but it's a vaguely similar style, and that provides some hints as to how Kopylov might approach this matchup.
Kopylov is also a lefty — one might even say "crafty lefty" to borrow a baseball trope — who should be able to use angles and footwork to stymie Gautier, at least for some part of this fight. The problem for Kopylov is that Gautier's power means he might just need to land once, while Kopylov needs to win consistently throughout the fight.
With that said, Kopylov has been knocked down just once in a dozen UFC fights, and has never been knocked out in his career. At 35, his chin may be beginning to crack, but we haven't seen him badly hurt at any point in his run so far. All of Gautier's previous UFC opponents (besides Pulayev) had two things in common: they had other knockout losses in the UFC, and they'd never landed a takedown in any previous UFC fight. Kopylov shares neither of those red flags.
Gautier vs. Kopylov Pick, Prediction
As I'm sure is apparent from the above, I'm fairly bullish on Kopylov's chances here. While I'd have no issue with anyone taking a stab at a moneyline bet, I believe there are better angles to be had.
The first is Kopylov to land a takedown at -105 odds. Given how easily a far worse grappler in Ozzy Diaz got to the legs of Gautier, I believe Kopylov can finish takedowns. More importantly, his past results against dangerous strikers suggest that he will be looking for takedowns, which is the more important piece of the equation.
Beyond that, I like Kopylov +3.5 points at +140 odds from a pre fight angle. Assuming he survives the beginning of the fight, he should be able to take a later round against a fighter who cuts a massive amount of weight, and is competing at elevation. However, you don't necessarily have to pick a side pre fight if you're going to be watching this one live.
A Kopylov live bet following the first round is my preferred angle. The main reason is we will have answered the "if he survives the first round" question at that point, so even if the line is worse, the riskiest part of the fight will be behind us. Plus, if he gets hurt but not finished in Round 1, we could end up with an even better line than his +210 odds now.
Billy's Picks: Kopylov Over 0.5 Takedowns -105 (DraftKings) | Kopylov Live after Round 1
