Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo Odds
| Ferreira Odds | -175 |
| Quarantillo Odds | +145 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+145/-188) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 120 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 120 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo prediction for UFC Vegas 120 on Saturday, August 8, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The term "co-main event" is probably a bit generous this week, as the penultimate fight of UFC Vegas 120 features a pair of unranked lightweights both coming in on consecutive losses. With both men born in the 1980s they aren't exactly "prospects" either, but Billy Quarantillo and Diego Ferreira have one thing going for them: a penchant for putting on a show.
In 17 UFC appearances Diego Ferreira has earned seven performance bonuses, and been on the losing end of two bonus-winning stoppages from his opponents. Billy Q has three performance bonuses to his name, and has been stopped in each of his last three losses.
There's no doubt that this bout was placed near the top of the card for the potential of a fun fight more than the stakes, but will the veterans be able to turn back the clock for one more exciting performance?
Tale of the Tape
| Ferreira | Quarantillo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-7 | 18-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:43 | 11:05 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/18/1985 | 12/08/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.70 | 7.44 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.46 | 5.83 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 42% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.82 | 1.47 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 24% |
| TD Def | 57% | 61% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 1.0 |
What immediately struck me when breaking down tape on these fighters is how similar they are. Both men do their best work on the feet, where they try to strike the delicate balance of using their length to an advantage while also pressuring forward and controlling the pace of the fight.
At their best, both Ferreira and Quarantillo are aggressive pressure fighters, throwing a high volume of somewhat-wild strikes in an attempt to overwhelm their opponents. Ferreira's 74-inch reach is on the longer side for lightweight, and his better minutes have been when he's able to stay just outside of his opponent's range while still pressing forward. As evidenced by his 39% significant strike accuracy rate, he's optimizing for power over precision, hoping to land a big strike or two in the flurry rather than touch his opponent repeatedly.
That might be the biggest difference between his striking approach and Quarantillo's. While Quarantillo operates similarly in terms of pressure and distance management, he lacks the pure power of "CDF" and thus relies on landing more total strikes on his opponent. The American former featherweight is also fighting at lightweight for the first time in the UFC, which will likely exacerbate the volume vs. power dichotomy between these two fighters.
How this shift in weight class impacts Quarantillo is probably the most important factor of this fight. He was knocked out badly in his last fight — something else he has in common with Ferreira — in December of 2024. On the one hand, an older fighter moving up in weight and taking a couple years off is probably a net positive for the durability. On the other, lightweights hit harder than featherweights, and that featherweight knockout came at the hands of 41-year-old Cub Swanson.
The other factor is the distance management. Quarantillo's 70-inch reach was above-average at 145lbs, but he's giving up four inches in reach to Ferreira. Recklessly pressing forward against a taller fighter, especially with a suspect chin, is a dangerous plan for Quarantillo, who comes into the fight with a poor 42% significant strike defense rate. While the time off may have helped his chin recover somewhat, at 37 it's hard to seem him making significant improvements to his defense, or any other aspect of his game, in that time frame.
I have similar concerns about the durability of Ferreira, though. He's 41 years old with three knockout losses in his last six fights, including an extremely ugly one — with a late stoppage to boot — in his last appearance:
While it's been nearly a year since that fight, at his age it's reasonable to wonder if he's ever able to come back from that much damage.
In theory, it would make sense for both men to attempt some grappling in order to protect their chins, but I'm somewhat doubtful we get any. Quarantillo is the better wrestler but Ferreira the more dangerous ground fighter. That creates a situation where one fighter is able to initiate some ground fighting (Quarantillo) but unwilling, where his opponent is willing but unable. For that reason, I expect this to mostly play out on the feet.
Ferreira vs. Quarantillo Pick, Prediction
I'm more or less in line with the market on the moneyline here. Ferreira deserves to be favored, but it's easy to see how it could go wrong given his questionable chin, and Quarantillo's superior minute winning thanks to his superior volume and accuracy. It's also at least somewhat likely that a now 41-year-old has fallen off a cliff athletically since we last saw him a year ago.
Rather than pick a side, I'm betting on one of these fighters durability to fail them once again. The Under 2.5 rounds prop is juiced up to -188, but the fight to not start Round 3 is just -130 odds at DraftKings. They're giving this fight a relatively high implied odds of ending in Round 3 (about 18%), but stoppages are typically more likely early in fights when both fighters are fresh.
Given the huge question marks surrounding both men's chins, as well as their aggressive styles, ten minutes should be more than enough to settle this one.
Billy's Pick: Fight Doesn't Start Round 3 -130 (DraftKings)
