Colby Thicknesse vs. Vince Morales Odds
| Thicknesse Odds | -135 |
| Morales Odds | +114 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-280/+210) |
| Location | RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia |
| Bout Time | 5:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Perth odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Perth with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Colby Thicknesse vs. Vince Morales prediction for UFC Perth on Saturday, May 2, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Perth's preliminary card features a bantamweight bout between Colby Thicknesse and Vince Morales.
A longtime training partner of Alexander Volkanovski, Thicknesse will attempt to build on his first UFC win last fall, where he squeaked out a close and competitive decision over Josias Musasa. Whereas Morales, who is technically winless in his last five appearances in the UFC's octagon, has a deceptive record given that it's filled with a lot of tough, shorter-notice fights in enemy territory that were much closer than most seem to remember.
But regardless of any goodwill that Morales may have been able to build with the promotion, this is bout opposite Thicknesse is undoubtedly a must-win spot for the 35-year-old veteran.
Here's my Thicknesse vs. Morales pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Thicknesse | Morales | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-1 | 16-10 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 12:47 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/23/1999 | 11/12/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.33 | 3.57 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 37% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 1 | 0.59 |
| TD Acc | 9% | 40% |
| TD Def | 50% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Although both Thicknesse and Morales come from wrestling backgrounds, you wouldn't necessarily know it considering the abundance of striking and submission threats that comprise both parties' offensive arsenals.
Thicknesse, who is the more diverse and dynamic striker, does a decent job of mixing up his attacks. Demonstrating more of a poor man's version of City Kickboxing's brand of striking, Thicknesse prefers to stage his offense from the outside.
Whether Thicknesse is flashing feints or throwing out hard kicks and crosses, the 26-year-old never seems to stray too far from his taste for level-changing takedowns.
Even though Thicknesse breaks his posture pursuing shots at the legs more than I'd like, the New South Wales native does have a decent body lock takedown game when he can get his hands connected. And when Thicknesse can transition to his opposition's back, "Slickness" wastes little time in looking to sink in suffocating chokes.
Luckily for Morales, he's seen just about every style and specialty at this point in his career.
Coming from a base in boxing and wrestling, Morales has since rounded out his MMA game with everything from leg kicks to submissions. Morales may not have the most flashy skill set on the feet, but the Syndicate MMA team captain has steadily sharpened his skills over two tenures with the UFC.
Staying balanced over his feet, Morales puts himself in a prime position to punch with power, whether he's coming forward or firing off the counter. And when Morales is feeling in stride, "Vendetta" does well at corralling opponents with hooking shots to the body and head that come in combination.
Morales may allow more takedowns more than you'd suspect from a statistical perspective, but the Contender Series alum offers a plethora of dangerous front chokes that he can chain to and from in the blink of an eye.
Thicknesse vs. Morales Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the Australian fighter, listing Thicknesse -132 and Morales +108 as of this writing.
Although this line appears to be bouncing back a bit from its initial even-money opener, I feel fairly confident in labeling Morales as the value side of this equation.
Aside from personally lining Morales upwards of the -140 range, I truly believe that there's more than meets the eye when it comes to the American's resume. Aside from nearly choking out prospects at the buzzer in his last two fights, there's no way you can watch back the tape on Morales and say that he's not UFC-level.
Whereas Thicknesse, whom I'm not even convinced won his last fight against Musasa, appears to lack the prerequisite level of athleticism and finishing power that's required to stay afloat on this stage. In fact, I noticed that Thicknesse has a propensity to get hurt early in fights that stems all the way back to the beginning of his career on the regional circuit, which makes Morales in Round 1 props worth taking a look at.
Add in the fact that Thicknesse has a habit of shooting head-first takedowns to alleviate pressure, and I suspect that a Morales submission, whether it be a club-and-sub or a straight catch, could be live at +650.
But with points props inflated to high heaven, I feel like this is a classic "pick a side and ride" spot. I grabbed Morales earlier this week at +120, but I'd be comfortable betting him all the way down to -120.
Dan's Picks: Vince Morales +114 (DraftKings)
