Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 325 (Saturday, January 31)

Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana Odds

Check out the Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana prediction for UFC 325 on Saturday, January 31, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Junior Tafa moved down a weight class from heavyweight to the wide-open light heavyweight division, but failed to impress in his debut. His opponent on Saturday, Billy Elekana, is the one that has built some momentum by winning two consecutive fights after dropping his short-notice debut last January. Make no mistake, this is Elekana’s fight to lose, and he should be able to dispatch the Australian Tafa rather easily.

Here's my Tafa vs. Elekana pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Tafa is a reasonably solid athlete, and possesses one shot knockout power that makes it dangerous for any opponent in the division to stand toe to toe with him. And that is precisely why Elekana would be foolish to approach this fight with anything other than a commitment to take the path of least resistance.

If you take only a few minutes to review Tafa’s MMA career, you will see his 6-4 record is padded with one-dimensional fighters that gifted him the opportunity to knock them out. All six of his professional victories are by KO, and only his win over Parker Porter came against a fighter that has a win themselves at the UFC level.

Elekana has a much more versatile skill-set than any opponent Tafa has faced in his entire career. Oddly, after losing his divisional debut to the low-level Tuco Tokkos, Tafa has now been given a step-up in competition in my estimation. 

Elekana’s patience, sharp work with his jab, and reach advantage should be able to keep him safe if this fight plays out at distance for any amount of time; but again, I do not see why the coaching staff of Elekana would advise him to do anything other than put Tafa on the mat in the early going. Tafa’s takedown defense is poor and his defense on the ground is quite possibly the worst of any fighter on the entire UFC roster.

It remains to be seen if Elekana has what it takes to crack the top 15 in this division, but it is promising that his loss to Bogdan Gustov has aged well. Gustov is now the 9th ranked fighter at light-heavyweight, so losing to him on short-notice shouldn’t weigh too heavily on his future even if he didn’t look very good in that bout. One thing he did do in that fight, however, is shoot for one takedown and land it successfully. 

Elekana clearly has the ability to get this fight to where he wants, and he has the skills to finish the fight once it gets there. Tafa’s toughness is a family trait, knocking him out won’t be easy, even if an abundance of ground and pound strikes are being landed. All signs point to Elekana locking up a submission en route to spoiling Tafa's home crowd advantage.

Tafa vs. Elekana Pick, Prediction

Even at -250, this line feels much too short. Tafa has one singular path to victory, and that will take incompetent fight IQ from everyone in the Elekana camp for that path to come to fruition. This is not a difficult fight to break down, and I believe we are being given quite the gift from oddsmakers here in the form of a submission prop.

I am personally playing a full unit on Elekana by submission at +180, and would play that specific prop down to +150. I am also adding an additional quarter-unit to his submission prop in round 1, at +500. This will net me around 3 units in total profit after Tafa’s abysmal submissive defense is exploited once again.

John's Pick: Billy Elekana by submission +180 (FanDuel) | Elekana by Round 1 Submission +500 (FanDuel)

Premium picks, tools & analysis

Track & follow smart money

Biggest player prop edges

Real-time expert pick alerts

SAVE 66% NOW!