Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda Odds
| Sousa Odds | -265 |
| Miranda Odds | +215 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-238/+180) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 6:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 120 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 120 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda prediction for UFC Vegas 120 on Saturday, August 8, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Despite being buried on the prelims, Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda might end up being the best fight on the entire card.
Miranda, who is the former 3-time LFA lightweight champion (a title that was not defended successfully for nearly a decade until "El Machete" came along), hails from Cub Swanson's Bloodline CSA and has long been a regional standout waiting for his shot in the big show.
Sousa, on the other hand, may have only broken out last year post his Dana White's Contender Series debut, but the Brazilian is also a deceptively experienced product who is already primed for this level of competition. In fact, Sousa even holds a knockout win over top-ten UFC lightweight Mauricio Ruffy.
Tale of the Tape
| Sousa | Miranda | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-1 | 13-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:#6 | UFC Debut |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 6/04/1997 | 8/12/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.15 | |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.71 | |
| SS Defense | 51% | |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | |
| TD Acc | 0% | |
| TD Def | 60% | |
| Submission Avg | 1.6 |
From a style perspective, this is a battle between a supercharged Brazilian bomb thrower and hard-nosed, pressure-fighting Mexican-American.
Sousa, the Brazilian, throws with all the power that his pre-USADA shoulders suggest.
Despite coming from a Muay Thai background, Sousa employs more of a lancing, one-two style of attack that you would associate more with a karate-boxer. However, when feeling in stride or allowed to work in his opponent's kitchen, Sousa's smarter striking instincts come to life in the form of knees and combination punches to the body (both of which I see serving him well opposite his current counterpart).
I'll be curious to see if Sousa looks to tone down his more dynamic attacks due to the looming takedown threats in this matchup, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt does show some solid answers in transition.
Although Sousa's fundamental takedown defense leaves plenty to be desired, the 29-year-old likes to utilize kimura grips to get himself out of trouble. Sousa appears more than competent with the kimura trap series, but he primarily likes to use the submission threat to create scrambles and positive space.
The explosive Brazilian is also good about timing his bridges to get out of bad spots. Nevertheless, Sousa will need to avoid negative positions at all costs against a grinder like Miranda.
A seemingly rare breed of pressure fighter, Miranda serves as a solid throwback as far as his fighting spirit and intentions go.
A southpaw-primary stance-switcher, Miranda does a deceptive job at putting his punches together. Although it usually takes him the better part of a round to get going, Miranda makes plenty of hay with simple southpaw shot selections.
From a slow and steady lead jab to his persistence of punching in and out of collar ties, Miranda looks to be developing a sneakily effective dirty boxing game. And when he is feeling in stride, the native of Santa Ana will naturally pull and return punches – typically countering in combination.
Once able to corral his opposition toward the fence, Miranda will look to employ a series of clinch strikes and takedown looks alike. From simple foot sweeps to level-changing shots along the cage, Miranda is a relentless catch wrestler who is willing to swim in deep waters in order to wear out opponents.
Should Miranda score some top time in this fight, then Sousa will need to maintain his urgency if he means to avoid the Mexican-American's unheralded ground-and-pound abilities and opportunistic submission threats.
Sousa vs. Miranda Pick, Prediction
he oddsmakers and the public strongly favor the Brazilian, listing Sousa -310 and Miranda +235 as of this writing. I can't say that I'm shocked or disagree with Sousa being set as the favorite, but the betting line above still seems a little too wide for my liking.
The hype and excitement on Sousa, who has proven to be more than a first-round-or-bust knockout threat, is more than justified. Miranda is a fighter who deserves way more respect outright, though, and also represents some arguable on-paper kryptonite for a fighter like Sousa.
Aside from having the best chin I've seen in MMA since the unkillable Blagoy Ivanov blessed the octagon, Miranda's southpaw pressure – coupled with his wrestling and grappling – could be the ideal archetype to deal with a power threat like Sousa. And from a betting perspective, durable southpaws who can wrestle have long been my favorite underdog archetype since cashing Rick Story to beat Thiago Alves at similar odds to the fight at hand.
The potential problem, however, is that Miranda, despite his record and high output style, tends to find himself in close fights that are largely dependent on late comebacks in his five-round bookings.
Even though Miranda is surely aware that he only has three rounds to work, I worry that his slow starts could cost him a classic close decision loss. I'll still officially pick Miranda as I genuinely believe he has more ways to win this fight, but I think I'll hold off betting Miranda's money line pre-flop in favor of opportunities on the live line (though anything at +250 or better is honestly worth a stab).
The bet I will commit to, however, is Miranda's points handicap.
Banking on Miranda's durability (as well as the fact that Miranda's hot round of round two is also Sousa's worst on-paper round), I believe that +5.5 or 3.5 points options are more than playable at short chalk or plus odds alike.
I was able to find a 3.5 prop for +120, but you can find an arguably better deal on the +5.5 option at DraftKings for +100.
Dan's Pick: Miranda +5.5 Points +100 (DraftKings)
