Check out my Bukauskas vs. Cutelaba prediction for UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10.
Here's my Bukauskas vs. Cutelaba prediction for tonight.
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba Odds
| Bukauskas Odds | +100 |
| Cutelaba Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-166/+130) |
| Location | Centre Bell | Montreal, Quebec |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 315 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 315 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Bukauskas vs. Cutelaba Pick
Modestas Bukausas is 4-1 in his second UFC stint, following his brutal 2021 leg injury against Khalil Rountree Jr., but will face a grappling-oriented opponent for the first time in years, in Ion Cutelaba (averages 4.6 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 52% accuracy, 54% control rate) who fights like he's double parked (average fight time of 7:48).
Bukauskas has the bigger frame (2" taller, 3" reach advantage), is the more technical striker at range, and has the better gas tank of the pair. However, he has struggled against more physical opponents and powerful athletes (losses to Rountree, Vitor Petrino, Michal Oleksiejczuk, and Jimmy Crute), is not particularly durable himself, and seems a much better offensive grappler than he is defensively.
Cutelaba has underrated wrestling and judo, and can take almost every opponent down. Still, he tends to prioritize submission over position on the mat and exerts all of his energy behind every technique that he attempts in the cage, creating a chaotic atmosphere in every one of his matchups.
Cutelaba has shown the ability to sustain a grappling-heavy game plan for at least ten minutes, but he slows drastically in the second half of his fights, and as Cutelaba wanes, Bukauskas should have a path to a come-from-behind finish in the third round.
Still, I'd expect Cutelaba to look like the much more dangerous and effective fighter from the opening bell, and would bet his moneyline pre-fight, up to -130 (projected -138).
You can consider searching for a live bet on Bukauskas after Round 1 – or midway through Round 2- as the live market will likely offer the peak price point on the underdog.
In addition to Cutelaba's moneyline, I also show value on the Fight to End Inside the Distance (projected -370, listed -200) and on Cutelaba to win Inside the Distance (projected +116, listed +130).
Bukauskas vs. Cutelaba Predictions
Picks:
- Ion Cutelaba (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to -130
- Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-200, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -250
- Modestas Bukauskas Live during Round 2
