Check out my UFC 326 predictions for every fight on tonight's pay-per-view at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Below, I look at the latest UFC 326 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.
Let's break it down.
UFC 326 Predictions
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value, and after looking at the UFC 326 odds, today's event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 326 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter's likelihood of winning by Decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance and for each fighter to win inside the distance.
Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.
Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Light Heavyweight Bout
Odds
Fernandez
-225
Bellato
+185
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
-135/+105
Projection: Fernandez (66.6%)
Luke Fernandez will make his UFC debut on Saturday, following a 15-second win on Contender Series as a -1000 favorite; he has substantial power, but is apparently well-rounded, coming from a collegiate wrestling background and finishing Phil Hawes via anaconda choke in a grappling match.
While Fernandez is green and still relatively young for a Light Heavyweight, he should have opportunities to land on and hurt Rodolfo Bellato early; the Brazilian only defends strikes at a 46% clip. Bellato is durable, has good cardio, and can turn the tables if his opponent tires out, as Fernandez has finished eight of his ten pro and amateur fights in the opening frame.
I show value on two potential wagers in this fight: setting Bellato by KO/TKO at +543, compared to the listed odds of +600, and expecting this fight to reach a decision slightly more often than the betting market suggests (projected +250, listed +270). To that end, I would consider a small bet on the Over 1.5 Rounds (-120) or pass on this fight.
And I would consider the underdog if his odds climbed north of +220.
Bets
Over 1.5 Rounds (-118, 0.25u), BallyBet; bet to -135
I project an edge on the favorite, Jeong Yeong Lee, in this matchup, setting his moneyline closer to -350 than -300; I would take him straight to -305, or include him in a parlay up to -330.
Still, since Lee is not reliable to grapple, and is a less effective distance striker than Gaston Bolanos (+0.7 to -1.8), I have concerns about laying juice on him as a substantial favorite. Moreover, he took this fight on short notice, in place of his countryman Joo Sang Yoo.
Lee is the much bigger man (3" taller, 4" reach), and Bolanos is moving up in weight (from 135 to 145) to accommodate the matchup. A Muay Thai specialist, Bolanos is the far more technical striker – but I would expect Lee to dominate in all clinch and grappling exchanges, and to carry more power on the feet.
Bolanos has shown minimal resistance when opponents initiate the grappling against him (42% takedown defense; 21% control rate) and should get outmuscled by this particular opponent, as Lee takes a significant step down in competition relative to his recent competition.
If Lee proactively grapples, I expect him to cover his price tag and likely finish the fight on the mat; I show value on his submission prop (projected +350, listed +410), the best way to leverage his grappling-based success. And you can also play the Over on his takedown prop (0.5, -200?)
Rafael Tobias will make his UFC debut on Saturday after winning via first-round submission on Contender Series as a -450 favorite, while showing competent grappling relative to the divisional standard.
The promotion seems intent on moving Tobias quickly in the division, pairing him against a fighter coming off consecutive submission losses in Diyar Nurgozhay. Still, I think some market overcorrection is baked into this line; Nurgozhay entered the promotion as an intriguing, unbeaten prospect – following a finish win of his own on Contender Series, but has lost his hype train after consecutive defeats as a -450 favorite against Brendson Ribeiro, and in a pick'em against Uran Satybaldiev.
Tobias, just 22 years old, lost regionally via knockout as a significant favorite and has not proven that he can maintain a measured or minute-winning fighting style at this level when he is unable to finish his opponents; he is extremely reckless and puts him.self in harm's way.
While I'm concerned by the odd ways in which Nurgozhay lost – getting submitted twice without permitting a takedown – the market has steamed aggressively in his direction, coming down from an opening line north of +200; I set his odds closer to a pick'em price, and would bet him down to +110.
I also lean toward the Over 1.5 rounds (-110), given the gap between my distance projection and the listed odds (projected +283, listed +300).
Bets
Diyar Nurgozhay (+170, 0.35u), Fanatics; bet to +110
Over 1.5 Rounds (-105, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to -120
This matchup will look like fighters from different weight classes competing, as Sumudaerji stands 4" taller, with a 10" reach advantage over Jesus Aguilar, who owns the shortest reach in the history of the men's UFC divisions (62").
Despite his size and seemingly limited technical skill set, Aguilar has proven to be a relatively effective distance striker, outlanding his opponents by 2.2 strikes per minute at distance, compared to 3.4 for his opponents.
Still, Aguilar's best path in this matchup may be land takedowns and get on top of his opponent, but he's not a particularly effective wrestler, and seems unlikely to have opportunities to test his lethal guillotine against an opponent who is unlikely to grapple offensively; he likely needs to turn caught kicks into takedowns.
If this fight were in the smaller cage at the APEX, I'd give Aguilar a better chance of being able to close the distance and pull off the upset. Still, Sumudaerji should be able to pick him apart with his jab from distance in the 30-foot octagon at T-Mobile Arena, and glide to a relatively comfortable decision.
"The Tibeaten Eagle" shows moneyline value; I project him at -290 and would take his moneyline to -260, or include him in a parlay at -275. Aguilar is an extremely public underdog this week, being picked to win the bout around 50% of the time in my public data sample, despite a significant difference in both size and betting odds.
Alternatively, or in addition, back Su to win by decision; I set that prop at +111, compared to the listed odds of +125.
Cody Durden is often a fast starter who fades by the midway point of his fights; he has lost five of his past six UFC fights, including four second-round finishes.
Conversely, Nyamjargel Tumendemberel is a calculated fighter who is willing to wait and let his opponents fade. He's the bigger man than Durden (4" reach advantage), and seven years younger than his 35-year-old opponent, who is on the wrong side of the division age curve for Flyweight (average age of 31).
I would anticipate Durden landing takedowns in the opening round before Tumendemberel eventually scrambles back to his feet and regains momentum.
As a result, while I don't show pre-fight value on either side of the moneyline, I'd anticipate that you may find an actionable plus money price on Tumendeberel at some point live during or after Round 1.
Pre-fight, I'm interested in betting his submission prop (projected +315, listed +390) or his odds to win in Round 2 (+550) or Round 3 (+1075); all of Durden's fights seem to have a similar dynamic, and Tumendemeberel is the type of fighter who will likely accept that exact type of fight dynamic and pacing.
Bets
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel wins by Submission (+390, 0.1u), FanDuel; bet to +325
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel wins in Round 2 (+550, 0.15u), FanDuel; bet to +500
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel wins in Round 3 (+1075, 0.1u), Fanatics; bet to +700
Alberto Montes is making his UFC debut after winning via second-round submission on Contender Series as a -290 favorite.
Both fighters, who typically compete at 135 pounds, are moving up to 145 for this matchup, which seems odd considering it was not a short-notice booking.
Ricky Turcios is the bigger man (2" taller, 2" reach advantage), but Montes is the stronger and more powerful fighter. However, he's a bit of a note-note grappler who relies on front headlock chokes, and Turcios has proven himself a competent defensive grappler and scrambler when he isn't overpowered in terms of physicality.
I do expect Montes to get the better of the grappling early, when both men are fresh, but the longer the fight extends, the more difficult it will be for Montes to submit or hold Tucios down. I'd anticipate the underdog will take over the momentum with pace and volume in the final two rounds of the matchup.
As a result, while I show pre-fight value on Turcios and would take his moneyline down to around +150 (projected +138), I expect that you would find a better price on his moneyline after Round 1 and can add live. Additionally, I would bet his pre-fight pointspread (+3.5, -125) and back Turcios to win one clear round at minimum without getting finished or surrendering a 10-8.
If Montes doesn't win by Round 1 submission, I suspect things may go south in a hurry for him.
Bets
Ricky Turcios (+160, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to +150
Ricky Turcios +3.5 (-130, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -150
Cody Brundage sought clearance from an external doctor to fight and avoid completing the mandatory 90-day suspension following a knockout loss after being finished by Cam Rowston in Australia on January 31.
My podcast cohost, Billy Ward, theorized that the promotion planned to cut Brundage, but instead brought him back on short notice in place of Dusko Todorovic, to flatter Donte Johnson, who followed up his Contender Series win (as a -250 favorite) with a second-round submission over Sedriques Dumas (as a -375 favorite):
Johnson is four inches shorter than Brundage, both own a two-inch reach advantage, is five years younger, and is a significantly better athlete. He competed at Heavyweight earlier in his regional career and is unbeaten as a pro; the cardio is the primary concern in his profile. Johnson won decisions as an amateur, but has finished all of his pro fights by the seven-minute mark.
Still, Brundage doesn't have a good gas tank either; I typically bet Round 2 and Round 3 props on his opponent, but given the recent KO loss, I can't in this instance.
My model projects value on Johnson to make it consecutive KO losses for Brundage; I set that prop at -198, compared to the listed odds of -165, and think I would rather lay the juice than bet his Round 1 prop (+100) or Round 1 KO prop (+145).
Moreover, I would use Johnson as a parlay piece, up to -900 (projected -950).
Bets
Utilize Donte Johnson as a Parlay Piece (up to -900)
Cody Garbrandt is the popular public underdog of the week, taking 63% of the picks across my public data sample, compared to betting odds closer to 42% implied.
Long Xiao is seven years younger, owns a five-inch reach advantage over the former champion, and I haven't loved Garbrandt's physicality or power since moving up to Bantamweight; I expect him to get overpowered by his younger opponent.
I bet against Garbrandt in each of his two fights since moving to 135, and anticipate that he's going to get finished in the wrong matchup; his chin was seemingly compromised in the latter parts of his Flyweight run, and while that may have been weight-cut related, I've been waiting for an action-fighter to test his chin at this weight class.
Xiao will push a high pace and force Cody to engage with him, and if Garbrandt is unwilling to wrestle (Xiao has been taken down in five of six promotional bouts), I'd expect him to get clipped and hurt in the pocket.
While I get the arguments for betting on Garbrandt as an underdog, modeling the market this way points to Xiao as the clear value side of the line; public handicappers and fans have all the love for "No Love" this weekend, but the market has not budged on Xiao's favoritism.
I projected his moneyline closer to -200, and would bet him up to -180. Still, I might prefer his odds to win inside the distance (projected +236, listed +275) or by KO/TKO (projected +343, listed +480) as Garbrandt is historically the more reliable minute-winner.
Bets
Xiao Long (-145, Risk 0.5u), HardRockBet; bet to -180
Xiao Long wins Inside the Distance (+300, 0.15u), ScoreBet; bet to +250
These two fought in Ferreira's UFC debut in 2023, and Brunno won by first-round knockout as a +270 underdog, in a fight he took on three days' notice.
While Rodriguez remains the bigger man (4" taller, 3" reach advantage), the superior submission grappler, and the more effective distance striker (+0.8 to -0.4 differential per minute) my opinion of Ferreria is drastically higher than it was going into his UFC debut; he has shown excellent Judo and proven a far more effective grappler than I anticipate he would be.
Most importantly, I view him as the far more durable man than Robocop, who has gotten hurt fairly consistently in his recent bouts, including his recent win over Roman Kopylov. Moreover, while Rodriguez excels at taking the back of opponents, he stopped grappling proactively to protect his suspect gas tank (he gassed out in his main event loss to Jared Cannonier and has faded late in other fights).
Both fighters have the same takedown rate (average 2.5 per 5 minutes at distance). Still, while Rodriguez is the better control grrapler (73% to 40% control rate), Ferreira may be best served by clinching and forcing Rodriguez to muscle his way out of positions early; the more you can force Rodriguez to grapple, the more inffective he looks later in his fights, and if you can force him to use energy in clinch situations where he can't land real damage, that's a big win for the underdog.
Ferreira has begun to move in from an opening line closer to +165, but I make him +130 and would bet his moneyline down to +140. I also align with his knockout prop (projected +254, listed +265), but would prefer the straight bet.
Bets
Brunno Ferreira (+150, 0.5u), Caesars; bet to +140
I have the least conviction in this fight, and no betting takes in this fight relative to other bouts on the card.
My projection (Johnson -110) aligns with the midpoint of the betting market, and my distance prop (projected -192) isn't far enough from the listed line (-190) to justify a wager. The only worthwhile bet may be Johnson by KO/TKO (projected +253, listed +270 at FanDuel).
I do foresee a finish in this matchup, and would consider betting the fight to finish closer to -170, but that's largely betting on Drew Dober's chin being cracked; he used to be one of the most durable fighters in the promotion, but is 2-4 in his past six fights, with two knockout losses and a cut stoppage.
Johnson is two years older than Dober, but he is the bigger man (2" taller, 3" reach) and the superior boxer (+1.4 to +0.2 strike differential per minute). Dober is the better kicker and more reliable grappler, but I don't see him accumulating enough control time or damage from top position to offset Johnson's work on the feet.
Dober has moved closer to even money after opening at +120. I might take a small stake in Johnson if the line flips and gets to -105; otherwise, I'm passing on this fight.
While there is a 17-year age gap in this matchup, the older man, Rob Font, has better cardio. When opponents resist the physicality and grappling of the young Raul Rosas Jr., he seemingly panics and spirals, triggering an adrenaline dump and subsequent fatigue.
I'd expect Rosas to continue to improve as he ages. Still, he doesn't possess the fluidity on his feet that you'd want to see from a young fighter, which would lead to him becoming a far more technical striker; he's an excellent grappler for someone his age, but I think the ceiling for his overall MMA game is relatively limited, and I'm willing to be wrong in that assessment.
Font is the far more effective striker (+2.5 to -0.1 distance differential per minute), but he struggles to defend takedowns (has allowed 22 takedowns on 29 attempts across his past five fights). Still, Font won't accept the position, and will look to scramble and get off of his back, but I expect Rosas Jr. to win the first round at a relatively consistent clip -if not finish the fight – before Font takes over.
As a result, while I make Font +167 pre-fight and you can bet him as high as +200, down to around +180, I expect that his peak price might come after Round 1 (or midway through Round 2), and you can add live. Additionally, I would back Font on the point spread (+3.5, -135) up to -150; if the fight goes to decision, I'd expect him to win the third Round almost as consistently as Rosas wins the first. His odds to win in Round 3 (+2000) are also intriguing.
Bets
Rob Font (+220, 0.25u), DraftKings; bet to +180
Rob Font +3.5 Points (-125, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -150
My model likes Caio Borralho as a potential value bet in Saturday's co-main event, setting him just north of -300, compared to listed odds closer to -200; it would recommend him as a straight bet at -277 or as a parlay piece at -290. Moreover, I show an edge on his odds to win by decision (projected +113, listed +140), which I would take to +120.
I'm a bit leery about the decision prop, as Reiner de Ridder essentially quit in his main event against Brendan Allen in his last fight after winning Round 1; it was his fifth appearance in his first calendar year in the UFC, and he has taken six months off to recover since that bout, but its worth noting that de Ridder also retired in the third round of a ONE title fight against Anatoly Malykhin in 2024; when he takes attritional damage his body fails him.
Borralho doesn't carry a ton of power, but he is extremely well-rounded; de Ridder has the better distance striking stats (+0.9 to +0.5 differential), but the southpaw vs. southpaw matchup could take away his preferred knees, his own preferred method of landing attritional damage on opponents.
De Ridder is the bigger man "3 taller, 3" reach advantage) and the likelier of the two to get on top early with his Judo; still, I view Caio as the superior jiu-jitsu practitioner and wrestler, and anticipate that he will look to separate and stay at kickboxing distance, and potentially mix in some offensive grappling to tire out his opponent later on in the fight.
Borralho has the better gas tank, and I'd look to bet him after Round 1 if he falls behind; he has shown elite cardio in his main events, landing a high number of strikes.
RDR should be able to pace himself better in a three-round fight as opposed to five, and I do think he can survive to the scorecards to cash a decision ticket. Still, the best spot on Borralho may come alive after five minutes.
Lastly, I felt the odds for Borralho to get one takedown (Over 0.5, +100) were a touch short. At the same time, he may not proactively wrestle under de Ridder tires; RDR has shown a willingness to accept takedowns (50%) to get fights into the grappling realm where he feels more comfortable.
Bets
Caio Borralho wins by Decision (+135, 0.25u), Fanatics; bet to +120
For additional information on Saturday's Main Event and BMF title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full fight preview.
In short, I projected Max Holloway as a -212 favorite (68% implied) for Saturday's BMF title bout against Charles Oliveira. As a result, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline. I would consider backing Holloway closer to -190, or Oliveira nearer to +225 if the line moves aggressively in either direction.
However, I project an actionable edge in the fight to end inside the distance, and the correlated unders for this fight; setting the bout at -290 to finish (74% implied), compared to listed odds closer to -225 (69.2% implied).
You could take that prop a bit larger, but I think a finish may become less likely the longer the bout goes, and would prefer to ladder the Unders with the distance prop; Under 1.5 (+260), 2.5 (+135), 3.5 (-125), 4.5 (-190), and the inside the distance prop (-225), each for a share of the stake; you can allocate equally or backload it to the inside the distance prop.
You can also ladder the "fight to start round" props Round 2 (+360), Round 3 (+190), Round 4 (+105) at Caesars, and Round 5 (-145) at DraftKings are all comparatively priced to, if not bigger than, the edges we'll find in the totals market.
Alternatively, or in addition, I project an edge on Holloway to win by knockout (KO/TKO), setting that line at +132, compared to odds of+170; take that line down to +145.
And I would consider a live bet on Holloway anytime after Round 1, once he's been taken down and scrambled back up (or denied entry to Oliveira) and shown he's comfortable fending off submission attempts or stopping positional advances.
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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