The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend, with a rather lackluster (on paper at least) 14-fight card headlined by Josh Emmett and Kevin Vallejos.
The prelims start at 5:00 p.m. ET, with the entire event airing on Paramount+ streaming.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 114 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 114 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Kevin Vallejos (-550) vs. Josh Emmett (+410)
The main event for this card is an interesting — if not transparent — bit of matchmaking, as the UFC pits 24-year-old prospect Kevin Vallejos against former interim title challenger Josh Emmett, who turned 41 last week. Vallejos is 17-1 as a pro, with his only loss a close decision to Jean Silva on the Contender Series when Vallejos was only 21.
Since then, he's ripped off six straight wins, including a return appearance to the Contender Series and three in the UFC proper. He finished another veteran featherweight, Giga Chikadze, in the second round of his last appearance. Conversely, Emmett is 1-4 over his last five fights, with only a knockout-of-the-century win over Bryce Mitchell in the win column.
Emmett still has power, but not much else at this point in his career. Vallejos has never been finished, or even knocked down, in the UFC or Contender Series, so the power isn't particularly concerning here. I'm considering buying some shares of Vallejos on prediction markets, where he's the equivalent of -450 or so, but the traditional sports book lines are about right by my estimation.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Charles Johnson (-170) vs. Bruno Silva (+170)
Before we dig any deeper, it's worth pointing out that this is flyweight Bruno Silva, who is 5-4-1 in the UFC, and not the middleweight of the same name who dropped five straight before being mercifully released from the UFC last year.
With that out of the way, I'm surprised to see such a big underdog price on "Bulldog," who has gone 5-2 over his last seven, with his losses coming against two of the three best flyweights in the world, Josh Van and Manel Kape. He's finished each of those five wins, which primarily came against fighters ranked similarly to Johnson.
The other issue here is that Johnson was face-planted by Alex Perez just six weeks ago, so it's surprising he's even returning this fast. While Johnson was never fully unconscious, it was still a pretty bad knockout. Since joining the UFC, Johnson has been one of the more active fighters, which could be catching up to him at this point. He's also stepping in on short notice, after Silva's original opponent, Lone'er Kavanagh, was bumped to the UFC Mexico main event.
In a matchup where Johnson is unlikely to grapple much or at all, not being able to absorb many shots on the feet is a major disadvantage, especially against a powerful opponent like Silva. The line seems to be dropping a bit, so grab the underdog now at DraftKings, where the +170 line is as good as any in the market — but consider leaving a bit of room to double-down with a finish prop later in the week.
Verdict: Silva Undervalued
Piera Rodriguez (-142) vs. Sam Hughes (+120)
The latest entry in the "wait, that's a rematch?" file is Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes, who are running back their matchup from October of 2022 for some reason. Rodriguez won a close, but clear, decision in that matchup, and has gone 2-2 since — though one of the losses was a strange DQ in a fight she was dominating.
Hughes has a 4-1 record since that fight, though two of her wins were via split decision. She probably should've gone 1-1 over those fights, which means her record would be 3-2 in the time since they first fought.
With both fighters almost exactly the same age and Rodriguez winning the first booking, that's a good sign for the slight favorite. Plus, she probably deserves to have a better record since that fight than she actually does, while Hughes should be worse. Put those together, and I'll be getting an early bet down on Rodriguez. The -130 line via Hard Rock Bet is the best in the market, while the -136 at FanDuel is the best option for those without access to Hard Rock.
Verdict: Rodriguez Undervalued
