Gregory Rodrigues vs. Bruno Ferreira Odds
| Rodrigues Odds | -170 |
| Ferreira Odds | +142 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-115/-115) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 326 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 326 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Gregory Rodrigues vs. Bruno Ferreira prediction for UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Rodrigues vs. Ferreira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Rodrigues | Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:59 | 6:27 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/17/1992 | 11/4/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.60 | 3.85 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.84 | 3.99 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.93 | 1.29 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 23% |
| TD Def | 75% | 61% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.8 |
Rodrigues vs. Ferreira Pick, Prediction
These two fought in Ferreira's UFC debut in 2023, and Brunno won by first-round knockout as a +270 underdog, in a fight he took on three days' notice.
While Rodriguez remains the bigger man (4" taller, 3" reach advantage), the superior submission grappler, and the more effective distance striker (+0.8 to -0.4 differential per minute) my opinion of Ferreria is drastically higher than it was going into his UFC debut; he has shown excellent Judo and proven a far more effective grappler than I anticipate he would be.
Most importantly, I view him as the far more durable man than Robocop, who has gotten hurt fairly consistently in his recent bouts, including his recent win over Roman Kopylov. Moreover, while Rodriguez excels at taking the back of opponents, he stopped grappling proactively to protect his suspect gas tank (he gassed out in his main event loss to Jared Cannonier and has faded late in other fights).
Both fighters have the same takedown rate (average 2.5 per 5 minutes at distance). Still, while Rodriguez is the better control grrapler (73% to 40% control rate), Ferreira may be best served by clinching and forcing Rodriguez to muscle his way out of positions early; the more you can force Rodriguez to grapple, the more inffective he looks later in his fights, and if you can force him to use energy in clinch situations where he can't land real damage, that's a big win for the underdog.
Ferreira has begun to move in from an opening line closer to +165, but I make him +130 and would bet his moneyline down to +140. I also align with his knockout prop (projected +254, listed +265), but would prefer the straight bet.
Projection: Rodrigues (56.5%)
Zerillo's Pick:
- Brunno Ferreira (+150, 0.5u), Caesars; bet to +140
