Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson Odds
| Lemos Odds | +164 |
| Robertson Odds | -198 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175/+135) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 114 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 114 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson prediction for UFC Vegas 114 on Saturday, March 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Depending on the status of former champion Weili Zhang, who vacated the belt to challenge for the flyweight title, the strawweight bout between #8 Gillian Robertson and #5 Amanda Lemos could have major implications for the title picture. Robertson has won four straight fights, while Lemos has alternated wins and losses over her past six — but one of those wins came against current champion Mackenzie Dern.
Here's my Lemos vs. Robertson pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Lemos | Robertson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-5-1 | 16-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:28 | 10:05 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 63" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/22/1987 | 5/17/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.75 | 2.86 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.24 | 2.86 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.02 | 2.74 |
| TD Acc | 62% | 40% |
| TD Def | 64% | 41% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Despite her theoretically solid claim for another title shot, I highly doubt that the UFC will be rooting for Amanda Lemos here. The Brazilian turns 39 in a couple of months and was thoroughly dominated by then-champion Zhang in a 2023 title fight.
As evidence for that assertion, I submit the matchmaking for this bout. Lemos is one of the most powerful strikers ever to grace the strawweight division, but has a massive weakness in her grappling game. The UFC could fairly easily put her in stylistically favorable matchups if they wanted to build her towards another title shot, but instead, they've done the opposite by giving her Robertson.
I still think of Robertson as a rising fighter — and indeed she's still just 30 — but she already holds the record for the most submission wins by any woman in UFC history. That makes her an especially difficult matchup for Lemos, who has been submitted in two of her last four losses and taken down in five straight fights.
Considering the tepid performance we saw from Tatiana Suarez in her last fight (which came against Lemos), there's a case to be made that Robertson has the best takedowns of any strawweight fighter. She averages just under three per 15 minutes with a solid 40% accuracy rate, but more importantly, converts takedowns into top time at a high clip. The nine takedowns she landed over her last three contests turned into more than 26 minutes of control time, and that was with a ground-and-pound finish in one of those fights.
Despite her edge in the striking department against most of her opponents, Lemos has never seemed all that interested in working back to her feet once taken down. She's allowed more than three minutes of control time per takedown over her last three contests, and generally accepts bottom position while throwing up submission attempts rather than trying to stand up. That's a relatively low-probability strategy in any matchup, but it is especially thin against Robertson, who regularly competes in professional submission grappling.
While Robertson doesn't bring much power on the feet, she's extremely aggressive with strikes on the ground, which she uses to open up submission opportunities or pick up ground-and-pound finishes. Ten of her 13 UFC wins have come inside the distance, which would be an impressive figure for anyone, but especially for someone in the sport's lightest weight class.
I'm also not confident that Lemos is the better technical striker at this point in her career, although she certainly has an edge in power. While that can always be a game-changer, Robertson has yet to suffer a knockdown loss in 19 UFC appearances and is reasonably solid defensively, so that risk is mitigated here.
Lemos vs. Robertson Pick, Prediction
I had hoped that doing tape study on these women would lead me to a more exciting angle than simply laying the juice on a moneyline favorite, but sometimes the best bets are the least interesting. That's the case here, with Robertson holding an edge in nearly every department, on top of being eight years younger.
Robertson inside the distance at +180 is tempting but not quite a big enough price, and it's hard to pick between a submission (+300) and a T/KO (+750) when the lines are almost exactly in line with her career finish rates (three knockouts and seven submissions). I wouldn't fault anyone for taking a stab at the knockout prop given her aggressive ground and pound, but it's fairly likely she locks up a choke on a wounded Lemos rather than finishing the job with strikes.
Thus, I'll be taking Robertson straight up at -198 via DraftKings, the best currently available line, and would play her down to -215.
Billy's Pick: Robertson -198 (DraftKings)
