Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos Odds
| Emmett Odds | +410 |
| Vallejos Odds | -550 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-120/-110) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 114 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 114 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos prediction for UFC Vegas 114 on Saturday, March 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 14-fight card, featuring a Featherweight showdown between No. 11 contender Josh Emmett and No. 14-ranked Kevin Vallejos.
Emmett, a 15-fight UFC veteran (19-6 record), will compete in his 5th main event or five-round fight in the octagon (and the eighth of his career), but enters Saturday's contest on a 1-4 record in his past fights, with his lone win a quick knockout over Bryce Mitchell.
Conversely, the 24-year-old Vallejos, who is 17 years' Emmett's junior, enters with a 4-1 record under the UFC banner, with his lone loss coming to Jean Silva in a 2023 contender series bout. He has finished his other fights with wins, including a spinning backfist knockout of Giga Chikadze in December.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 114 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these featherweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET (7:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.
Here's my Emmett vs. Vallejos pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Emmett | Vallejos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-6 | 17-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:59 | 8:24 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 3/4/1985 | 12/08/2001 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.72 | 5.78 |
| SS Accuracy | 35% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.43 | 4.71 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.08 | 0.71 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 28% |
| TD Def | 43% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0 |
We don't generally see such a dramatic age gap between UFC fighters in any matchup, let alone a five-round main event. The sample size for a 15+ year age gap across all MMA bouts since 2024 is relatively small (60 fights), including relatively recent wins for Raul Rosas Jr. over Rob Font last week, and Chase Hooper over Jim Miller (April 2025).
Still, the younger fighter has won 39 of those 60 contests (65%) at average odds of -125 (55.5% implied), nearly ten percent above expectation, which aligns with findings in the larger data samples for gaps of 8+ and 10+ years between opponents. Generally speaking, the younger fighter isn't as well known as their "name brand," and as a result, either the public, the betting market, or both incorrectly skew towards the more recognizable name.
It's difficult to suspect that Kevin Vallejos is undervalued by as much as 10% in this matchup; however, considering his implied odds are already north of 85% at -550. Even though Vallejos has shown excellent durability to head strikes, Emmett carries some of the most significant power ever for the Featherweight division. He is capable of turning the lights off for any opponent.
Still, Kevin Vallejos will be the much faster athlete in this matchup, and he's shown that he can work behind his jab and set up boxing combinations even when he's at a size disadvantage, as he's regularly at a reach deficit (2" advantage for Emmett).
While we haven't seen Vallejos perform or carry pace over a 25-minute fight, he does seem extremely measured and patient in his style and could be a fighter like Petr Yan, who gets better and builds momentum the longer his fights go on.
You need to take Vallejos' statistical edges with a grain of salt (+0.6 to -0.9 strike differential; 88% vs. 65% control rate), as they came against lesser competition than the levels he is currently rising to face.
Still, I don't necessarily view Emmett as a step up in competition or a more difficult stylistic matchup relative to a former GLORY kickboxer.
Emmett is very deliberate with his powerful overhands, and he is probably knockout-reliant in his forties in five-round fights against a younger, faster opponent. He'd be well served to mix in his wrestling (completed four takedowns against Lerone Murphy for 3:39 of control); however, I doubt he will win more than a round with his wrestling or maintain top position for long stretches of the fight.
I suspect Vallejos may stay reserved and calculated over the first five minutes to download information – as he seemed to do against Giga – before ramping up his intensity in the second round. As a result, I would consider betting Vallejos live if his line improves at all after Round 1. Although we've never seen him in a five-round fight, I'll trust the gas tank of a fighter who is nearly two decades his opponent's junior.
Both fighters have shown elite head-strike durability, but Emmett has sustained a ton of damage in his main-event losses to Ilia Topuria and Lerone Murphy, before getting outmuscled and submitted by Youssef Zalal. I suspect his physicality and durability could be in freefall in his early forties.
Betting Insight
I projected Kevin Vallejos as roughly an 84% favorite in this matchup (-538 implied odds), and I don't project an edge on either side of the moneyline at current odds.
Moreover, I align with the totals on this fight, setting the bout to end inside the distance about 63% of the time (-212 implied odds), which is essentially on point with the listed odds too (-215).
I do, however, project an edge on two knockout props; either Vallejos to win by TKO/KO (projected -109, listed +110) or the fight to end by TKO/KO (projected -164, listed -125). The first bet, Vallejos by knockout, offers a 4.5% edge relative to my projection. However, the second bet, which includes Emmett's knockout equity, is a near 6.5% edge and covers most of Emmett's win condition.
As a result, while I'm fine betting either option (and would take the bigger edge you can find between the two), I would opt for the latter option at current prices, and bet the fight to end by knockout (TKO/KO) up to -150. Alternatively, bet Vallejos by TKO/KO down to even money.
And lastly, to reiterate, consider a live wager on Vallejos anytime after Round 1; he's calculated in three-round fights, and I suspect that he continues to take a passive approach early in his first career main event.
Sean's Picks:
- Fight Ends by TKO/KO (-125 at DraftKings) | Kevin Vallejos Live after Round 1
