Read our UFC Vegas 114 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 114 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 114 Prop Projections
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:15 p.m. ET
Last week, I whiffed on my pick of "previous winner of a rematch" when Brunno Ferreira lost to Gregory Rodrigues, but I'm going back to that well this week.
I wouldn't fault any readers for not realizing that the UFC Vegas 114 opener between Piera Rodriguez and Sam Hughes is a rematch, but the pair met back in October of 2022, in what was Rodriguez's second promotional appearance. Rodriguez won a fairly clear unanimous decision victory over "Sampage" in which she took down Hughes five times, while outlanding her 83 to 69 in significant strikes.
While Rodriguez didn't do much with those takedowns (under two minutes of total control time), the fact that she was the one landing takedowns is concerning for Hughes. Throughout her career, Hughes is 5-0 in fights in which she lands a takedown, and just 1-5 in fights she doesn't, with the lone win coming via split decision. From what I've seen since the original meeting, Rodriguez has also made the bigger strides in her overall grappling, racking up 15 takedowns across her last two fights.
Her inability to do much of substance with those takedowns is normally a concern, but less so in this matchup where she's fairly clearly the better striker. Hughes is slower, less powerful, and brings a significant negative strike differential into the matchup despite spending so much time in the top position across her career. While Rodriguez isn't an elite striker by any means, she should be the one landing the bigger strikes on the feet.
All things considered, getting anywhere inside of -200 on a fighter who is both the better striker and grappler feels like a steal. With the moneyline on Rodriguez still as low as -155 via DraftKings (despite some early line movement), that's still well within the range I'd take.
Pick: Piera Rodriguez -155 (DraftKings)
Charles Johnson vs. Bruno Gustavo da Silva
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Charles Johnson is the bigger flyweight (5" taller, 5" reach advantage) than Bruno Silva, but he's surprisingly coming back five weeks after his first career knockout loss against Alex Perez, where he was dropped multiple times in the second round.
Johnson is the more efficient striker than Silva (+0.5 to -0.9 differential at distance per minute), but Bruno will land the bigger shots, and he's both the more proactive (averages eight takedown attempts per five minutes at distance) and the better grappler – controlling 66% of mat and clinch time in the UFC, compared to 22% for Johnson.
Silva's losses have all come against ranked opposition, whereas Johnson has been in several 50/50 fights with unranked fighters and scored come-from-behind knockout wins against current champion Joshua Van and potential future title contender Loonar Kavanagh, while likely trailing on the scorecards, to keep his recent record afloat (there's a world where he enters this bout having lost four of his past five fights).
Johnson has excellent cardio, and he should come on stronger in the second half of the bout, but Silva won't let him settle into a boxing match; if he forces the wrestling, he can take Johnson out of striking rhythm from the outset. Moreover, I expect him to test Johnson's durability and submission defense fairly quickly.
I make Bruno Gustavo da Silva a +115 underdog in this matchup, and I'd bet his moneyline at +150 down to +125. Additionally, I expect the bout to end inside the distance more than 55% of the time at the plus-money price; bet the fight to end inside the distance up to -115.
Pick: Bruno Silva +150 (BetMGM) | Fight Ends Inside the Distance +120 (DraftKings)
