The UFC makes one of its trips to London this weekend, with the event at the O2 Arena headlined by local favorite Lerone Murphy taking on Movsar Evloev. Both men are undefeated, and the promotion has touted this as a fight for a title shot, so the stakes are high in the main event.
The 14-fight card starts an hour earlier than normal at 4:00 p.m. ET, with the entire event airing on Paramount+ streaming.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 114 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC London Predictions & Luck Ratings
Movsar Evloev (-218) vs. Lerone Murphy (+180)
Two undefeated featherweights who are probably overdue for a title shot have their chance to claim one this weekend, with the 19-0 Evloev taking on the 17-0-1 Murphy. They each have nine of those wins in the UFC, while Murphy's lone non-win was a split draw in his UFC debut back in 2019.
Neither man is a great finisher, with Murphy having just three UFC stoppage wins while Evloev has none. However, Murphy's last fight was a highlight-reel elbow knockout of Aaron Pico as an underdog, so he's got some momentum in terms of recent results. Murphy also has the edge in five-round experience, with two 25-minute fights in the UFC, while the promotion has kept Evloev away from main events until now. On top of that, there's a strong case that Evloev lost his last fight against Aljamain Sterling, with fans and the media both split fairly evenly.
I also like this matchup stylistically for Murphy, given his ability to work back to his feet against grapplers like Evloev. Pico took Murphy down twice in the first round, but Murphy gave up just two minutes of control time and got back up to finish the former All-American.
I'll be keeping some bets in the chamber for Murphy late or live once those markets come up, since his ability to get up from takedowns and 25-minute experience should be enough to wear Evloev down early. However, I think this moneyline is also too wide, so I'll be putting a half-unit on Murphy at the best available odds, which are currently +190 at Caesars.
Verdict: Murphy Undervalued
Kurtis Campbell (-238) vs. Danny Silva (+164)
We've seen some significant line movement already in the fight between Scouser Kurtis Campbell and Danny Silva. Campbell opened at -180, but has already been bet down to -238 via DraftKings all before fight week.
While I bet against him at the odds, I officially picked Campbell to win his Contender Series fight last year, which he did in impressive fashion via knockout. I was already high on his grappling, but to see that type of power from him standing was a big upgrade in my mind.
He's taking on a fellow grappler in Silva, but one I'm less impressed by, due to his inability to pull away with his grappling. Silva is 2-1 in the UFC with a pair of split decisions. I'm not holding his loss — a decision against Kevin Vallejos — against him, but the ceiling for him seems to be a relatively close grappling-heavy decision.
Campbell has far more ability to put a stamp on rounds and fights, so I'll also be betting on him either inside the distance or via his point spread once I can. For the time being, I'll grab Campbell at his -210 line via BetMGM, in case the moneyline goes back his way during the week.
Verdict: Campbell Undervalued
Brando Pericic (-278) vs. Louie Sutherland (+225)
I use certain rules of thumb when writing the Luck Ratings piece, with the obvious ones being split decision losses and short-notice fights not really counting against a fighter. This week, I'm adding another category of "meaningless" loss: heel hooks by Valter Walker.
I bet on Louie Sutherland in his UFC debut at big plus money, assuming that after three straight heel hooks from Walker, somebody would be able to figure it out. Sutherland became the fourth straight victim of "The Clean Monster's" signature submission in under 90 seconds. I'm not entirely sure why so many UFC heavyweights have fallen victim to the entirely predictable game plan of Walker, but at this point, I'm willing to chalk it up to black magic of some kind.
Which means my original read on Sutherland's abilities is far more relevant than what we've seen thus far. He's a huge, reasonably athletic heavyweight with solid technique on his feet, which instantly puts him ahead of a good chunk of the division. Brando Pericic made quick work of Elisha "Snack Panther" Ellison in his UFC debut, which was originally a DWCS fight that, for some reason, was elevated, but it's hard to credit him too much for that win.
The line has already started to come in on Sutherland, so I want to get my exposure now while he's north of +200 odds, but look for him to make amends for his debut loss this weekend against Pericic.
Verdict: Sutherland Undervalued
