Noche UFC Odds, Pick & Prediction for Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena: 2 Saturday Night Bets (September 16)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Jack Della Maddalena of Australia
Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena Odds
Saturday's Noche UFC co-headliner in Las Vegas features a fun showdown between ranked welterweights Kevin Holland and Jack Della Maddalena.
Since dropping back-to-back fights to Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson, Holland appears to be back on track after accruing a couple of stoppage wins at 170 pounds.
Della Maddalena, a product of the Contender Series feeder system, has reeled off five straight wins since officially debuting with the UFC.
Let's look at Holland vs. Della Maddalena at Noche UFC.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||10:52||6:51|
|Weight||170.5 pounds||171 pounds|
|Date of birth||11/5/1992||9/10/1996|
|Sig Strikes Per Minute||4.11||7.27|
|SS Absorbed Per Minute||2.96||3.50|
|Take Down Average||0.83||0.36|
Both fighters are more well-rounded than they're typically given credit for, but this battle between Holland and Della Maddalena will likely be a strikers' delight.
Holland, who is incredibly long for the division with an 81-inch reach, seems to smartly lean on his lead hand a bit more at welterweight.
Whether Holland's poking and prodding with his jab or hitting a change-up with his hook, the 30-year-old American manages distance fairly well. That approach also helps set up Holland's patented right hand, which is an opportunistic weapon that the Texan always keeps on a hair-trigger.
Never blink when @Trailblaze2top's in the Octagon!
Holland faces Jack Della Maddalena in Saturday's #NocheUFC co-main!
— UFC (@ufc) September 14, 2023
That said, Holland's boxing-centric stance has traditionally left him open to leg kicks.
His UFC Noche opponent, Della Maddalena, may be more known as a boxing threat. However, the Australian appears to keep some underrated leg kicks in his back pocket.
In his fight against Randy Brown, Della Maddalena displayed the wherewithal to intelligently punish Brown for stepping heavily onto his lead leg.
However, it's inside of the pocket where Maddalena traditionally makes his money.
No doubt Jack Della Maddalena is the REAL DEAL👊
— UFC (@ufc) September 14, 2023
A competent combination puncher from both stances, Della Maddalena does well whenever he can corral his opposition between the cage and inner-black octagon lines.
And once he's able to sit down in range, the Australian native isn't shy about unleashing checking hooks and liver shots.
Both men are also serviceable submission threats, but poor and/or risky decision-making has been a problem that could arise with either fighter.
Holland vs. Della Maddalena Pick
Despite the oddsmakers setting the American Holland as the favorite, public money has come in on the Australian.
Although I understand the logic in slightly favoring the more proven product, I also believe that there was a bit of recency bias baked into the opening line.
Della Maddalena showed some suspect fight IQ in his most recent outing, but the fact that he found himself in a competitive fight with Bassil Hafez shouldn't have surprised anyone who was paying attention and researching the two fighters.
This market reaction doesn't surprise me, but I am mad that I missed out on Della Maddalena as an underdog.
However, I ended up taking Della Maddalena to win "inside the distance," which can be found in the neighborhood of +150 at your sportsbook of choice.
Aside from the fact that it's priced closely to the knockout prop, the inside-the-distance prop also covers an opportunistic submission should Della Maddalena try his luck on a hurt Holland.
Holland may be difficult to knock out, but his propensity to play inside of the fence and inner-black octagon lines will likely get him in trouble given that that's Della Maddalena's preferred kill zone. That said, Della Maddalena's defense is far from impervious, so I'll also be playing the under as a bit of a hedge.
I don't blame anyone for keeping it simple and picking a side, but I'm taking a calculated stab at violence.
The Picks: Jack Della Maddalena "inside the distance" (+150 at DraftKings) | Under 2.5 rounds (-142 at FanDuel)