Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Odds
| Dolidze Odds | +340 |
| Duncan Odds | -440 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130/+100) |
| Location | O2 Arena, London, England |
| Bout Time | 4:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC London odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC London with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan prediction for UFC London on Saturday, March 21, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Middleweights Roman Dolidze and Christian Leroy Duncan will clash at UFC London on Saturday, in what amounts to a significant test for both men to determine where exactly each stands in their careers. This has the feel of a bout featuring two fighters heading in opposite directions, but the oddsmakers have wisely priced this number quite wide. Instead, we will attack the total of 2.5 rounds here.
Here's my Dolidze vs. Duncan pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Dolidze | Duncan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-4 | 13-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:48 | 9:26 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 7/15/1988 | 7/24/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.41 | 4.60 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.72 | 2.97 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.99 | 0.40 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 20% |
| TD Def | 26% | 69% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0 |
Dolidze has faced extremely difficult competition in the middleweight division in recent years, but his game has not changed significantly and his skills have failed to evolve as he has aged. He is most dangerous in the early going of fights, where he has shown the ability to land the knockout shot. Interestingly, it has been his lack of takedown abilities that has held him back from truly implementing his grappling skills. This simple hole in his game has held him back from title contender status.
Dolidze operates aggressively in the opening round of fights, clearly confident in his durability. This style has served him pretty well, considering his cardio isn’t one of his better assets. However, the interesting aspect of this fight is that he is coming off the first stoppage loss of his career, and he is facing a very tricky opponent who boasts a knockout streak of his own.
This will force Dolidze to be a little more patient in his approach, which bodes well for our bet of over 2.5 rounds. He will undoubtedly still swing heavy shots when two men are exchanging, but Duncan is not an easy puzzle to solve. My expectation is that Dolidze will try to pick his shots, relying more on his low kicks to stymie the movement of the much more fluid Duncan.
Christian Leroy Duncan is riding high right now with an abundance of confidence in tow. He will now be fighting in front of his home crowd in England. Securing a third consecutive knockout with an electric crowd behind him would be another step towards stardom, but his coaching staff has to know that the past of least resistance here is to prioritize sound defense.
As mentioned, Duncan will have an edge in stamina, reach, and technique. He has shored up his defensive grappling holes, and one of the few ways he can be exploited is by overextending himself in an attempt to land the knockout blow to please the crowd. Keeping his back off the mat will be crucial to avoid any potential submission attempts coming his way.
Duncan is at his best relying on his patience and countering ability. If he can catch Dolidze pressing forward, the finish could materialize naturally. Ultimately, I do not believe he will be the first man to crack the iron chin of Dolidze. In fact, respect for their opponent from each fighter could lead to a slow start that really shrinks the window for the potential fight-ending blow.
Betting Insight
Duncan's 69% takedown defense should hold up as he continues to improve into a more well-rounded martial artist. He will be best served by making sure this fight gets extended using his movement skills and length to frustrate the powerful Dolidze. Once Dolidze is unsuccessful on a couple of takedowns attempts and begins to get tired, this angle could be a little of a sweat down the stretch.
That is why the best play here is to play over 2.5 rounds instead of taking the fight to go the distance. We can shave 2.5 minutes off the prop by playing it this way, and we don’t have to lay much juice to accomplish this. Eventually, Dolidze’s durability will deteriorate as he approaches 40 years of age, but I don’t think we are there quite yet. Plus, CLD can still put on a spectacular performance by showcasing his skills over three rounds against the highest ranked opponent of his career.
John's Pick: Over 2.5 rounds -120 (FanDuel)
