UFC 280 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev: Will It or Won’t It Go to Decision? (Saturday, October 22)

UFC 280 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev: Will It or Won’t It Go to Decision? (Saturday, October 22) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

  • Gadzhi Omargadzhiev drops from middleweight for a UFC 280 fight with Abubakar Nurmagomedov.
  • Nurmagomedov is a modest favorite in this welterweight fight.
  • In his betting breakdown below, Sean Zerillo explains why he's targeting a decision prop for the fight.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev Odds

Nurmagomedov Odds
Omargadzhiev Odds
2.5 (-195 / +160)
Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi
11 a.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov will look to build off his first UFC victory when he meets fellow welterweight Gadzhi Omargadzhiev on Saturday's UFC 280 preliminary card.

Nurmagomedov is a modest favorite in the fight, perhaps in part due to a famous last name he shares with cousin and former UFC champ Khabib.

He now meets Omargadzhiev, whose only career loss came to undefeated Caio Borralho.

Which 170-pounder has the edge in this one? Let's dig in.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time8:559:08
Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170 lbs.
Reach (inches)72"71"
Date of birth11/13/19892/24/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min3.591.21
SS Accuracy49%41%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.521.81
SS Defense69%38%
Take Down Avg1.681.64
TD Acc33%66%
TD Def0%0%
Submission Avg0.00.8

I'm not exceptionally high on either of these two Russian fighters. Omargadzhiev is moving down from middleweight after losing his UFC debut to Caio Borralho – the first loss of his career – and he'll be the taller fighter (6'1" vs. 5'11") but will cede an inch of reach.

Nurmagomedov is typically overvalued on name recognition.

Both men have been underwhelming under the UFC banner, but I lean toward the underdog because he is four years younger and seemingly more durable. Still, cutting 15 extra pounds could take a toll on his chin.

Abubakar has some wonky submission losses on his record, and Gadzhi tends to hunt for finishes.

Nurmagomedov vs. Omargadzhiev Pick

As a result, I project value on the total (projected -194 to go the distance, listed -165 at DraftKings) and Omargadzhiev by decision (projected +321, listed +300 at BETRivers); I'm not thrilled about either bet.

I'll play the Goes to Decision or GTD prop at -165, but I'll keep the stake modest.

The Pick: Fight goes to Decision (-165, 0.25u at DraftKings), bet to -178

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