UFC 285 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas: A Bet on the Small Underdog (Saturday, March 4)

UFC 285 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas: A Bet on the Small Underdog (Saturday, March 4) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Viviane Araujo

  • Tonight's UFC 285 prelims feature a prelim bout between women's flyweights Amanda Ribas and Viviane Araujo.
  • Ribas' return to 125 pounds against bigger opponents hasn't gone as smoothly as she hoped.
  • It's one reason Sean Zerillo is backing the small underdog in the UFC 285 prelims, as he details below.

Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas Odds

Araujo Odds
Ribas Odds
2.5 (-313 / +230)
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
8:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.

Fan favorite and ranked flyweight/strawweight Amanda Ribas meets Viviane Araujo on the UFC 285 preliminary card.

Both title hopefuls are in need of a win, and this bout presents each with the possibility of a signature victory for her resume.

Let's break down the 125-pound featured women's bout from the UFC 285 prelims on Saturday.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time15:4410:46
Weight (pounds)125 lbs.125 lbs.
Reach (inches)68"66"
Date of birth11/21/19868/26/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min4.824.46
SS Accuracy48%40%
SS Absorbed Per Min5.332.57
SS Defense56%70%
Take Down Avg2.032.19
TD Acc48%47%
TD Def90%88%
Submission Avg0.51.2

While many underdog backers thought Ribas won her last fight against Katlyn Chookagian – and she may have – I suspect the physicality difference and her lack of power in the 125-pound division may have cost her the fight.

Ribas wasn't a particularly big strawweight, and I'm surprised to see her stay at flyweight, where I think she likes the physicality to compete with the division's elite. Ribas is an elite judoka and jiu-jitsu practitioner, and her striking has improved tremendously; I didn't expect her to compete with Chookagian on the feet as well as she did.

That said, I don't think she can implement her best game plan (grappling) as well against flyweights as she can against strawweights. If she cannot take down Arauajo, she may get slightly outpaced again and by an even more physical fighter this time.

I also like Arauajo coming in off of her first main event. While she never showed great cardio in three-round fights – typically fading in the third round – Araujo managed her gas tank reasonably well in a "more competitive than the scores" loss to Alexa Grasso (50-45, 49-46x2), and I was on Grasso in that fight.

Araujo vs. Ribas Pick

That recent cage time and five-round experience likely aids Araujo's three-round cardio, and we may see a career-best effort from her this time out, dialing back to three rounds after a main event.

Araujo can keep the fight standing with her takedown defense (90%), and I view her as the better – and more powerful – striker. She also owns a two-inch reach advantage.

I projected Araujo as a slight favorite (54%) and would bet her down to -110.

The Pick: Viviane Araujo (+104, 0.5u at PointsBet)

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