UFC 288 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jessica Andrade vs. Yan Xiaonan: Fade the Ex-champ (Saturday, May 6)

UFC 288 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jessica Andrade vs. Yan Xiaonan: Fade the Ex-champ (Saturday, May 6) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC women’s strawweight Yan Xiaonan

  • Jessica Andrade vs. Yan Xiaonan is the lone women's fight at UFC 288 on Saturday.
  • Ex-champ Andrade is the favorite, but Yan is garnering plenty of betting interest.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo breaks down the strawweight matchup and offers his best bet for the fight.

Jessica Andrade vs. Yan Xiaonan Odds

Andrade Odds
Xiaonan Odds
2.5 (-175 / +145)
Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
11 p.m. ET
ESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Friday and via WynnBET

Former champion Jessica Andrade looks to bounce back when she meets the always-tough Yan Xiaonan on Saturday as part of the UFC 288 main card.

Bettors have flocked to the women's strawweight fight, but it's not because of the favorite.

Are those bettors backing the right vet? Let's look at the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time9:3815:20
Weight (pounds)115 lbs.115 lbs.
Reach (inches)62"63"
Date of birth9/25/19916/16/1989
Sig Strikes Per Min6.845.45
SS Accuracy51%44%
SS Absorbed Per Min5.343.53
SS Defense54%61%
Take Down Avg2.640.87
TD Acc54%66%
TD Def73%70%
Submission Avg0.40.0

Andrade is coming off of a poor, short-notice effort – up a weight class – against Erin Blanchfield, who might be a future champion at 125 pounds.

I backed Blanchfield in that spot but was surprised at how easily we cashed that ticket and how much success Blanchfield had in the striking.

Blanchfield and Andrade were even on distance strikes (50 apiece) over six minutes, and Blanchfield wobbled Andrade in at least one exchange.

While Andrade is moving down in weight, Yan Xianoan will have a one-inch reach advantage, potentially the speed advantage, and far superior technical boxing in this matchup.

Andrade's game is predicated on power and physicality. She hits hard, makes her opponents back up, and continues to press forward. She isn't afraid to take damage or get into a firefight, but her opponents are typically gunshy once they feel her power.

However, Andrade likely needs to deploy a grappling gameplan to justify her favoritism and win this fight, given the technical striking discrepancy and Yan's competitiveness or potential advantage at a distance.

Andrade vs. Xiaonan Pick

Yan trains with Team Alpha Male – and has improved her takedown defense, defensive grappling, and sprawl-and-brawl style following her positional TKO loss to Carla Esparza.

Yan continues to have close fights with high-level opponents, and I'm happy to back her at a nice plus-money price in what I expect to be a close and competitive featured bout.

I projected Yan as a +126 underdog; bet her moneyline down to +140. I also see slight value both on her decision prop (projected +223) and her KO/TKO prop (projected +805), and I might consider tossing the latter in a round-robin since Andrade can get reckless on the feet.

The Pick: Yan Xiaonan (+160, 0.5u) at WynnBet

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