UFC 292 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva: ‘Dog or Pass – But Wait (Saturday, August 19)

UFC 292 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva: ‘Dog or Pass – But Wait (Saturday, August 19) article feature image

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Andrea Lee

Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva Odds

Lee Odds
Silva Odds
2.5 (-200 / +150)
TD Garden in Boston
7 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via bet365

A regular of the UFC women's flyweight division meets one of the weight class' hottest prospects with Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva at UFC 292 on Saturday.

The two 125-pound vets meet on the early preliminary card with Lee looking to avoid a three-fight skid and Silva looking for 10 straight wins.

Will Silva prove her favorite status, or can Lee pull off a big upset on ESPN+?

Here's my Lee vs. Silva betting preview for UFC 292.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time13:599:48
Weight (pounds)125 pounds125 pounds
Reach (inches)69"65"
Date of birth2/11/19892/3/1997
Sig Strikes Per Minute5.135.47
SS Accuracy48%53%
SS Absorbed Per Minute3.591.90
SS Defense64%66%
Take Down Avg2.041.02
TD Acc57%33%
TD Def54%92%
Submission Avg0.60.0

The betting odds suggest that Saturday's matchup between Lee and Silva will reach a decision around 64.3% of the time (-180 market odds) – slightly higher than the average for women's flyweight (60.4%). And my projections are right in line with that number.

Based on that factor alone, you should be interested in backing Lee as a significant underdog if the judges are going to get involved.

Lee is also the larger fighter (two inches taller, four-inch reach advantage) and has faced far superior competition compared to Silva, a former strawweight on a nine-fight winning streak since her 2017 regional scene loss to current No. 9 UFC strawweight contender Marina Rodriguez.

Still, Silva is eight years younger and entering the prime of her career whereas Lee (34) is beyond the average age (30) for the division.

As I routinely mention, when there is at least an eight-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins 68.8% of the time (638-289) at average odds of -131 (56.8%) – about 12% over expectation.

And the age difference seems to matter more in the lighter divisions, where power matters less than speed and quickness.

Lee vs. Silva Pick

I expect to see a close and competitive three-round decision in this fight.

However, from a moneyline perspective, I would need closer to +280 to back Lee (projected +255) in a dog or pass but potential value trap spot.

Silva by decision was my initial lean, but the odds (+110 at FanDuel) aren't appealing.

The Pick:

  • Wait for +280 on Andrea Lee

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