UFC 296 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher: A Point-Spread Bet for Ex-Champ (Saturday, December 16)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC bantamweight Cody Garbrandt
Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher Odds
The UFC 296 preliminary card includes some notable names with Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher.
The bantamweights clash on the ESPN2 prelims with ex-champ Garbrandt coming off a rare recent win while crowd-pleaser Kelleher looks to halt a two-fight skid.
Here are the Garbrandt vs. Kelleher odds, prediction and betting pick.
Tale of the Tape
| Garbrandt | Kelleher | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5 | 24-14 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:13 | 8:24 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'6" |
| Weight | 136 pounds | 136 pounds |
| Reach | 65 inches | 66 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 7/7/1991 | 8/19/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.89 | 4.61 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.13 | 1.79 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 42% |
| TD Def | 78% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.7 |
It's been a precipitous fall for Garbrandt, a former bantamweight champion who's now relegated to a second consecutive prelim fight against an unranked opponent.
Garbrandt started both boxing and wrestling at a young age, and he is good at everything – except taking punches. That's obviously a tough weakness to overcome as a professional fighter, and it led to an ugly stretch of four knockout losses in a six-fight span.
Garbrandt bounced back from that most recent knockout loss with a fairly boring win over Trevin Jones, opting for a more conservative approach than he'd previously shown.
I'd expect the same against Kelleher, who's been submitted in the first round of his last two fights. Kelleher isn't much of a knockout threat with just three knockdowns in 15 UFC bouts, but the path of least resistance for the favored Garbrandt is still clearly through his wrestling.
Kelleher could certainly clip Garbrandt with something at any point, but his odds aren't great against a more athletic and technical striker.
Garbrandt vs. Kelleher Pick
How this one plays out ultimately comes down to whether Garbrandt wants to take a risk in hunting finishes, or simply secure another safe win. The former leaves an opening for Kelleher whereas the latter does not.
However, taking Garbrandt's point spread of -3.5 on DraftKings at -115 covers both scenarios. A three-round sweep on the judges' scorecards or a finish would both pay off that bet.
My concern over Garbrandt's chin keeps me from loving this bet, but it's my favorite angle for the fight.
The Pick: Cody Garbrandt -3.5 Point Spread (-115 at DraftKings)
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