UFC 296 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Edwards vs Covington, Ferguson vs Pimblett & More (Saturday, December 16)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Paddy Pimblett of England
Check out our UFC 296 best bets for the Saturday pay-per-view event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The UFC's final event of 2023 features two title fights, as well as an undercard full of intriguing matchups and ample betting opportunities.
UFC 296 kicks off on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT) before a move to ESPN2 for additional prelims at 8 p.m. ET. The main card then streams on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
UFC 296, which features welterweight champion Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington and flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval, features 12 bouts in all.
So where should be looking to place your bets? Our MMA experts have pinpointed four fights and picks, including the main event of Saturday’s stacked year-end card, that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks below.
*Odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Maximize your UFC 296 action with our FanDuel promo code.
Billy Ward: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
Despite a four-fight winning streak, Cody Durden enters a UFC fight as an underdog for the fourth straight time. In fact, he's been the favorite just once despite an overall 5-2-1 record in the UFC.
This time Durden (+154) takes on betting favorite Tagir Ulanbekov (-184) on the UFC 296 early prelims on ESPN+.
Durden, who's had three straight bouts with at least four takedowns, is a relentless wrestler with an extremely high fight IQ on the ground. And that's key to this UFC 296 best bet.
It's typically hard for flyweights to hold each other down for extended periods, but Durden prioritizes position, then damage, then submission attempts – in that order – when working from the top, leading to some dominant performances. That's how you win rounds with control time with the modern-day scoring criteria.
Durden also excels in opposite-stance matchups by dominating the lead hand and lead foot battles and then striking into grappling range. Unfortunately, Ulanbekov is also a southpaw, which limits one of Durden's strengths on the feet. Ulanbekov is also primarily a grappler, with a 3.81 takedown rate per 15 minutes.
This fight likely comes down to whichever fighter can get – and keep – top position longer. I like the bigger, stronger Durden's chances to do so, especially at the current odds.
Durden showed much better submission defense in his last fight against Jake Hadley, so I'll take the underdog money on Durden down to +130.
The Pick: Cody Durden (+150 at DraftKings)
Dann Stupp: Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
My UFC 296 best bet comes down to one thing: I can't trust the health or durability of veteran bantamweights Brian Kelleher (+158) or Cody Garbrandt (-188), who meet on Saturday's ESPN2-televised prelims.
I know it may feel a little macabre to gear a prediction around the declining health of two 30-something vets who have a lot of wear and tear on their bodies, especially when they've delivered such theatrics for us fans.
In Garbrandt's case, a declining chin has resulted in a 2-5 skid with four knockout losses.
Garbrandt survived a collapse in the third round to hang on and beat Trevin Jones in his most recent bout. He took a measured approach, largely avoided his tendency to get into firefights, and built an early lead to barely hang on for a win.
However, I'm not sure a measured approach is going to work best against someone like "Boom" Kelleher, who's going to push the pace and test his opponent's chin whenever the opportunity presents itself.
Granted, Kelleher has his own red flags to consider. He's coming off back-to-back first-round submission losses as well as a long layoff following neck surgery. The 37-year-old is 8-7 in the UFC with memorable battles against much of the division's elite. However, he's a bit of a feast-or-famine fighter: 18 stoppages in 24 career wins overall, and nine stoppages in 14 career losses.
If you're looking to target a total and bet the under, you can do a lot worse than picking against two aging vets with durability concerns – especially when one of them is likely to push a frantic pace.
I figured the bet that "fight doesn't go to decision" would be lined closer to -200 (66.7% implied probability), but Betway is giving us -134 (57.3%) – with Caesars not far behind at -145 (59.1%). Although I'm also going to personally bet on Kelleher as an underdog, I think we can get the most value by betting that this one ends before the final bell.
The Pick: Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher Doesn't Go to Decision (-134 at Betway)
Tony Sartori: Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
In a featured UFC 296 main-card bout this Saturday, lightweights Tony Ferguson (+275) and Paddy Pimblett (-340) clash.
As much as it pains me to do so, I think the best bet to make in this fight is to take Pimblett to win inside the distance, which is available at +110 at DraftKings and BetWay.
I know the majority of us MMA fans are going to be rooting for Ferguson to finally get back in the win column, but that is just something that I don't see happening again versus any competent 155-pounder.
Ferguson has lost six straight fights entering this week, with four of those coming inside the distance. Yes, his level of competition has been high for the most part, but the latest losses to Nate Diaz and Bobby Green have been more concerning.
There is a lot of talk this week about how "El Cucuy" trained with ex-Navy SEAL David Goggins, who is surprisingly also going to be in his corner this Saturday. However, I think this whole experiment is more of a red flag than a green one.
First, Ferguson's shape is not why he's lost six fights in a row – being able to run up a mountain is not going to help re-mold his chin. Second, Goggins is not an MMA coach, so what are we even doing here?
But I digress. Desperate fighters do desperate things, and that should play well into Pimblett's hands. If you are going to back Pimblett, then inside the distance at plus-money is the way to go as 15 of his 20 professional wins have come this way, including five of his six fights in the UFC.
I don't trust Ferguson's chin at all, and if Pimblett wants to bring this to the mat, I don't think it will take much to find a submission.
The Pick: Paddy Pimblett by Stoppage (+110 at DraftKings)
Dan Tom: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:59 p.m. ET
Despite some oddsmakers initially opening Leon Edwards (-166) as an underdog to Colby Covington (+140), I still believe that there's some decent meat on the bone if you're looking to back the sitting champion.
Although I've seldom ever picked against Covington during his UFC tenure, we've arguably seen the American challenger's ceiling in matchups where he can't dictate wrestling traffic.
Even in his last victory opposite Jorge Masvidal, the Cuban fighter demonstrated the ability to fight out of Covington's positions by using a 2-on-1 grip (a tactic that Edwards has already proven to utilize against high-level wrestlers).
An exhausted Masvidal was also able to drop Covington in Round 4 with a southpaw check hook – which just so happens to be a money punch for Edwards whenever he's facing fellow lefties.
Couple that with Covington's susceptibility to body kicks, and I suspect that the stage is set for the more active and well-rounded champion to take the challenger to school.
But between Covington's polarizing character and the cult of personality that exists in popular culture, I believe that we're still getting a discounted line given that Edwards could easily be justified as a 2-1 favorite.
For that reason, anything under 2-1 is a deal as far as I'm concerned.
The Pick: Leon Edwards (-160 at BetMGM)
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