UFC 296 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden: This Flyweight Can Control Action (Saturday, December 16)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC flyweight Cody Durden
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden Odds
The UFC 296 early preliminary card includes a can't-miss flyweight fight with Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden.
Both fighters are on strong recent runs and looking to move from the division's top 15 into a top-10 spot.
Here's my look at the Ulanbekov vs. Durden odds, prediction and betting angle.
Tale of the Tape
| Ulanbekov | Durden | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-2 | 16-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:48 | 10:03 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 126 pounds | 126 pounds |
| Reach | 70 inches | 67 inches |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/7/1991 | 3/29/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.35 | 3.13 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.29 | 2.94 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.81 | 5.41 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 50% |
| TD Def | 61% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.4 |
One of the UFC's most criminally underrated fighters comes into a fourth consecutive bout as an underdog despite a four-fight winning streak. That's Durden, who is 5-2-1 overall for the UFC, and who has been favored in just one fight (with another as roughly a pick'em).
The USA Wrestling tattoo on his shoulder gives a pretty strong indication of his fighting style, as does his streak of three straight bouts with at least four takedowns.
Durden's a relentless wrestler with an extremely high fight IQ on the ground.
It's typically hard for flyweights to hold each other down for extended periods, but Durden prioritizes position, then damage, then submission attempts – in that order – when working from the top, leading to some dominant performances.
I've been extremely impressed by the growth in the striking game from the southpaw, who excels in opposite-stance matchups by dominating the lead hand and lead foot battles and then striking into grappling range.
Unfortunately, Ulanbekov is also a southpaw, which limits one of Durden's strengths on the feet. Ulanbekov is also primarily a grappler, with a 3.81 takedown rate per 15 minutes.
Ulanbekov vs. Durden Pick
This fight likely comes down to whichever fighter can get – and keep – top position longer.
I like the bigger, stronger Durden's chances to do so.
If you like the favorite, consider Ulanbekov's submission odds. Three of Durden's four pro losses came via submission, and he occasionally leaves himself open to chokes while hunting takedowns.
Still, he showed much better submission defense in his last fight against Jake Hadley, so I'll take the underdog money on Durden down to +130. He's +150 at DraftKings as of this writing on Friday.
The Pick: Cody Durden +150 (DraftKings)
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