UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk: Zerillo’s Favorite Moneyline Play (Saturday, March 9)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Michal Oleksiejczuk of Poland
Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.
This clash should produce fireworks as two fighters from former weight classes collide in the middleweight division.
Pereira is a former light heavyweight who's a winner of six straight, and former welterweight Oleksiejczuk is on a 3-1 run since his move up. So this matchup also has plenty of stakes for 185 pounds.
Tale of the Tape
| Pereira | Oleksiejczuk | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-11 | 19-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:45 | 6:37 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 186 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 10/6/1993 | 2/22/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.09 | 5.12 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.74 | 4.17 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.56 | 0.76 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 44% |
| TD Def | 94% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
This prelim fight is a strong contender for a fight-night bonus. Oleksiejczuk is my favorite underdog bet – and one of the few moneylines I have bet overall – for Saturday's card.
Given his fighting style, the Polish native is always worth a pre-fight look. From the opening bell, he applies heavy forward pressure to opponents, backing them to the fence while mixing heavy boxing combinations to the head and body.
Moreover, his power has looked even more potent – and his takedown defense more formidable – since he moved from light heavyweight to middleweight in 2022.
I expect Oleksiejczuk to have a significant power advantage (especially early) against Pereira, who used to compete at welterweight and prefers to be the aggressor rather than fighting off the back foot.
I would project him to win the first round on the scorecards—or finish the fight in the opening round—greater than 50% of the time.
Pereira vs. Oleksiejczuk Pick
Neither fighter has shown solid cardio, but Pereira typically slows regardless of the pace of his fights, whereas Michal often struggles to maintain a pace that he initially sets. As a result, I think Oleksiejczuk's pressure could force both fighters to wilt, leaving the underdog at potential cardio parity over the final 10 minutes, where he's typically at a disadvantage.
Aside from potentially wrestling and accumulating top time over a tiring Oleksiejczuk for the final two rounds, I don't see a clear advantage for Pereira in this fight.
Take Michal's moneyline down to +120 (projected +115), and consider betting his knockout prop (projected +203) or Round 1 KO/TKO prop (listed +550).
The Picks: Michal Oleksiejczuk (+130, 0.5u) at BetMGM | Oleksiejczuk wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+550, 0.1u) at FanDuel
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