UFC 299 Best Bets: Picks, Predictions for Saturday Main Event, More

Check out our UFC 299 best bets for Saturday's pay-per-view event with our top expert UFC 299 picks and UFC 299 predictions for Saturday's main event and the rest of the UFC 299 card.

UFC 299 takes place at Kaseya Center in Miami with a main event between bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley and challenger Marlon Vera. In the co-main event, Dustin Poirier meets fellow lightweight contender Benoit Saint Denis.

UFC 299 kicked off with prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and then ESPNews (8 p.m. ET) before the five-fight UFC 299 main card on ESPN+ PPV begins at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).

Let's get to our UFC 299 best bets.

UFC 299 Best Bets

This is one of the deepest fight cards of the year – and it features 14 fights in all.

So where should be looking to place your UFC 299 bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.

*Matchup odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 299 with our FanDuel promo code!

UFC 299 Winner Projections

UFC 299 Prop Projections

Sean Zerillo: Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET

This middleweight prelim fight is a strong contender for a fight-night bonus. Michal Oleksiejczuk is my favorite underdog bet – and one of the few moneylines I have bet overall – for Saturday's card.

Given his fighting style, the Polish native is always worth a pre-fight look. From the opening bell, he applies heavy forward pressure to opponents, backing them to the fence while mixing heavy boxing combinations to the head and body.

Moreover, his power has looked even more potent – and his takedown defense more formidable – since he moved from light heavyweight to middleweight in 2022.

I expect Oleksiejczuk (+124) to have a significant power advantage (especially early) against Michel Pereira (-146), who used to compete at welterweight and prefers to be the aggressor rather than fighting off the back foot. I would project him to win the first round on the scorecards – or finish the fight in the opening round – greater than 50% of the time.

Neither fighter has shown solid cardio. Pereira typically slows regardless of the pace of his fights whereas Michal often struggles to maintain a pace that he initially sets. As a result, I think Oleksiejczuk's pressure could force both fighters to wilt, leaving the underdog at potential cardio parity over the final 10 minutes, where he's typically at a disadvantage.

Aside from potentially wrestling and accumulating top time over a tiring Oleksiejczuk for the final two rounds, I don't see a clear advantage for Pereira in this fight. I like Michal's moneyline down to +120 (projected +115), and if you're looking for additional action, I'd consider betting his knockout prop (projected +203) or Round 1 KO/TKO prop (listed +550) too.

The Pick:Michal Oleksiejczuk (+128 at FanDuel)

Billy Ward: Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET

It speaks to the overall quality of the UFC 299 offering that we have a top-10 heavyweight clash as a preliminary-card contest.

No. 5-ranked UFC contender Curtis Blaydes (+110) takes on No. 7 Jailton Almeida (-130) in the featured prelim fight on ESPN, with the winner the next logical challenger for Tom Aspinall’s interim title.

Almeida has been on a tear since moving up to heavyweight full-time with two finishes and an absurdly dominant decision win over Derrick Lewis. The Brazilian is an unstoppable force with his grappling and landed more than 21 minutes of control time against Lewis.

The Lewis fight is what ultimately pushed me to this pick. Almeida is a smaller heavyweight who broke into the promotion at 205, but he had no problem manhandling the massive Lewis.

Blaydes routinely weighs 10-15 pounds below the heavyweight limit while Lewis probably cuts to make 265 pounds, so that won’t be an issue for Almeida.

Blaydes is certainly the best wrestler Almeida has been matched up with at heavyweight, but Almeida will have a massive edge if he can get this fight to the mat. Blaydes has never really been in a fight where he’s the one defending takedowns rather than landing them, and he has just a 33% takedown defense rate in the UFC.

Given Almeida’s dominance in that department, I don’t see that turning around here. Even Blaydes’ theoretical striking edge is a question mark here. Part of what allows his success is an ability to swing freely, knowing opponents won’t attempt to take him down.

This fight feels very much like the coming out party for Almeida, who’s set to inject some much-needed intrigue into the top of the heavyweight division. I’d play his moneyline down to -125.

The Pick:Jailton Almeida (-114 at FanDuel)

Tony Sartori: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET

The UFC 299 co-main event features a scheduled five-round bout between No. 3-ranked UFC lightweight contender Dustin Poirier (+180) and No. 12 Benoit Saint Denis (-215), or "BSD."

While this fight is scheduled for five rounds, it is highly unlikely the championship rounds will even be needed as the Under 3.5 prop is currently priced at -250. If we like the heavy favorite, then it makes sense to bring the price down to take him either inside the distance, by KO/TKO or by submission.

I believe the most value is on BSD's submission prop at +165 via FanDuel. First, Poirier has lost just as many times in his professional career by submission as he has by knockout (and he quite frankly should have lost to Michael Chandler by submission, if Chandler knew how to throw in a choke from the back).

Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov both beat Poirier by rear-naked choke while "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung also submitted Poirier with a D'arce choke. I mention this because BSD has won by rear-naked choke multiple times throughout his career.

In fact, nine of Saint Denis' 13 professional wins have come by submission. I believe this will be his game plan once again on Saturday, and why wouldn't it be against a guy like Poirier, who prefers to stand and bang and has troubles with giving up his back?

A couple times a year, Saint Denis travels to Bulgaria to work on the grappling portion of his fight camp. For this fight, BSD spent his entire camp in Bulgaria. That is not a coincidence.

The Pick: Benoit Saint Denis by Submission (+165 at FanDuel)

Dann Stupp: Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET

Look, it's the biggest matchup on one of the biggest fight cards of the year, so of course I want some action on it. However, I think UFC 299's main event with bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley (-255) vs. Marlon Vera (+210) offers some tremendous value too.

O'Malley is the champion, and I even agree that he should be the favorite in Saturday night's rematch. Vera won the first meeting via TKO back in 2020 after O'Malley suffered a leg injury. However, it seems like oddsmakers and bettors are putting too much of an asterisk next to that result.

At worst, I think Vera wins the rematch 40% of the time. That translates to fair odds of +150, yet we can get Vera as juicy as +225 (30.8%) at the time of this writing.

Vera's traditionally slow starts concern me, but as many sharp handicappers have noted this week, he uses that time well. He may take some damage, but he also gathers intel and shapes his game plan for the remainder of the fight. In a five-round bout, that gives him the time he needs. Add in what I expect to be a cardio and durability advantage, and I think Vera has the tools to pull off the upset – even with a slow start.

I also think Vera can chip away at O'Malley's legs and sap his cardio. If hobbled and slowed, the champ will probably be even worse than he usually is with decision-making and giving away control time while losing crucial rounds.

Given the above breakdown, betting Vera live after a round or two is probably the best betting angle here since his odds are likely to swell even more. But I know not everyone has the market access (or late-fight sobriety) to reliably count on betting live. But, you can do a lot worse than taking Vera straight up on the moneyline pre-fight. That's going to be my official play, and I'd take it down to +180.

(But if you're looking for a little more juice, FanDuel also has an interesting angle: "Marlon Vera Round 4, 5, or by Decision" at +420 odds. I'll also be playing that one on my personal betting card – and if you want to tag along, use our QuickSlip link to have it automatically added to your betslip. But for my official pick, I'm going with the straight moneyline play on "Chito.")

The Pick: Marlon Vera (+225 at Betfred)