UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips: How to Bet Big Underdog (Saturday, March 9)
Cooper Neill/Getty. Pictured: UFC bantamweight Pedro Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips odds at UFC 299 – with our expert pick and prediction for Saturday, March 9.
These bantamweights kick off the ESPN-televised prelims, and matchmakers clearly expect lots of action.
Phillips is 5-1 in the UFC with three fight-night bonuses, and he gets one of his toughest assignments yet in the battled-tested Munhoz. The seven-time bonus winner also holds the UFC record for bantamweight appearances while fighting a who's who of 135 pounds.
Tale of the Tape
| Munhoz | Phillips | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-8 | 11-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:07 | 11:11 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/7/1986 | 6/12/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.45 | 5.36 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.14 | 3.36 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.5 | 2.9 |
| TD Acc | 19% | 46% |
| TD Def | 82% | 70% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Munhoz is another fighter on this card (along with Philipe Lins and Marlon Vera) for whom I project moneyline value betting from a pre-fight perspective. However, I anticipate finding a better live price betting after Round 1.
Phillips is nine years younger than Munhoz. He's the bigger (seven-inch reach advantage) and better athlete, and his success is typically frontloaded.
As I regularly mention, where there is at least an eight-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins 13% above expectation (68.6% at average implied odds of 55.6%).
Still, Phillips relies on mixing his striking and grappling to overwhelm and separate opponents, and Munhoz is highly durable and an excellent counter-grappler (82% takedown defense).
Phillips should be the busier fighter in Round 1, but Munhoz will look to land leg kicks and attritional strikes against him, which could pay dividends in the later rounds.
Additionally, Phillips has shown a tendency to slow down in the third round, regardless of the pace of his fights. I anticipate Munhoz winning the third round much more frequently than he does the opening five minutes.
Munhoz vs. Phillips Pick
While Munhoz has performed exceptionally well – broadly covering his pricetag and outperforming his record during a 2-5-1 run, all against top-flight competition – he's still 37 years old.
That's five years above the division average, and his level is likely to fall off shortly, even as he takes a step down in competition.
As a result, while I show pre-fight value on the Munhoz side (projected +158) and his odds to win by decision (projected +268), I'm inclined to wait for his moneyline to poke above +200 before jumping in; otherwise, I'll wait for a live entry.
The Pick: Pedro Munhoz Live after Round 1
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
