UFC 301 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Dione Barbosa vs Ernesta Kareckaite: Value on Underdog (Saturday, May 4)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Ernesta Kareckaite
Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite Odds
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite odds at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4.
The women's flyweight bout is part of the early prelims on ESPN+ with Barbosa as a substantial favorite. However, the value could be on the underdog.
Here's my Barbosa vs. Kareckaite pick and prediction.
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Tale of the Tape
| Barbosa | Kareckaite | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2 | 5-0-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 4:35 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 126 lbs. | 125.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/8/1992 | 7/5/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 0.87 | 12.27 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0.65 | 11.20 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 42% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.27 | 1.00 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 50% |
| TD Def | 0% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 9.8 | 0.0 |
The Brazilian, Barbosa, has steamed more than 10% from an opening line nearer to -145 (59.2% implied) than her current -225 (69.2% implied) best available odds.
Both flyweights earned contracts on the Contender Series this past September.
Ernesta Kareckaite, a Lithuanian native, is longer (5" reach advantage), taller (3"), and six years younger. But does she have the power to earn Barbosa's respect and keep the more powerful grappler at range?
Physicality goes a long way in lighter weight classes – and reach means less where power and finishing rates (61.4% decision rate at women's flyweight) are reduced. It could be a long night if Kareckaite doesn't have the pop in her shots to keep Barbosa off of her – or the ability to fight for underhooks and separate from the clinch.
Moreover, if Barbosa consolidates a takedown, Kareckaite's length could work against her on the ground; longer limbs lead to more accessible armbar opportunities (two of six wins from Barbosa).
Barbosa vs. Kareckaite Pick
I don't see value on either side of the moneyline, but I'd bet Kareckaite at +220 if the line continues to tick in her direction.
Additionally, I don't project any value concerning the total. It's a reasonably binary matchup, but I don't think Kareckaite has knockout power. Aside from attritional volume, Barbosa has more finishing upside on the mat.
I project value on Kareckaite by decision (projected +295, listed +350) and would consider poking that prop. If Ernesta fights a winnable fight, she should land substantially more volume across three rounds after landing 184 significant strikes in her Contender Series bout.
I also like a live entry on Kareckaite after Round 1; consolidating takedowns – and retaining the energy for them – will become only more difficult for Barbosa as the fight extends.
The Picks: Ernesta Kareckaite by Decision (+350 at Unibet, 0.1u) | Ernesta Kareckaite Live after Round 1
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