UFC 301 Odds & Predictions for All 13 Fights: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Preview (Saturday, May 4)

Check out all of my UFC 301 odds and my predictions for all 13 fights for Saturday's pay-per-view event, including the Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg main event.

Below, I break down and predict each bout on the UFC 301 card, which takes place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Here's how to watch UFC 301: The preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card then kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And UFC 301 is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 301 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 301 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

UFC 301 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 301 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 301 Odds

Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas

Crowdsourced Projections: Kevin Borjas (52.3%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, full Costa vs. Borjas preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

I like a pair of bets in Saturday's curtain-jerker, projecting Borjas as a favorite and expecting the fight to reach a decision more than 50% of the time; you can take plus money on both outcomes.

Borjas is the taller, longer and more durable fighter. Still, he will also offer more striking output relative to his opponent, Alessandro Costa, who carries more power and retains the grappling upside but has a subpar process to optimize his skillset.

Costa doesn't always proactively grapple when he has an advantage and tends to prioritize hunting for submissions over controlling opponents when he does. That leaves fellow flyweights with room to scramble out from under him.

I trust Borjas' takedown defense and getup game to keep this fight on the feet, where he'll land an accumulation of straight punches.

I'd consider including Borjas by decision (projected +324, listed +400) on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Kevin Borjas (+115, 0.5u) at BetMGM
• Fight Goes to Decision (+125, 0.25u) at Caesars

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel

Crowdsourced Projections: Ismael Bonfim (84.3%)

At age 28, Ismaael Bonfim is two years older than his brother Gabriel, a UFC welterweight, but he's 13 years younger than his opponent, Vinc "From Hell" Pichel, who will make his 11th (and potentially final) walk to the UFC octagon on Saturday at age 41, after appearing on The Ultimate Fighter in 2012.

Regardless of Bonfim's steep price tag, younger fighters are typically undervalued by about 12% in these matchups.

When at least a decade separates UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins 70% of the time at average odds closer to 58%. If I extend the range to a 12-year gap, the younger fighter wins 72% of the time, at average odds of 60.6%.

Pichel has the tools to trouble Bonfim. Despite his age, he is incredibly durable, offers excellent cardio, and has a well-rounded skill set. He's also the slightly bigger man.

That said, Pichel was too accepting of takedowns and the bottom position in his most recent loss to Mark O. Madsen, who later retired, and that was two years ago. Pichel may look stiff after a lengthy layoff.

Bonfim is a significantly quicker athlete, but he doesn't have the best gas tank and often tires himself out by fighting a sub-optimal game plan. He's the apparent "A" side in this fight; the UFC is giving him a 41-year-old opponent (average divisional age of 33) to bounce back from a loss to Benoit Saint Denis.

Still, if Bonfim doesn't get Pichel out of there early, don't be surprised if Vinc – despite his age – can work his way back into the fight against a younger man.

If Pichel shows that he can deny the takedowns or if can scramble back to his feet in the opening round, I'd be interested in a live wager. I will pass if Pichel accepts bottom position, as he did in the Madsen fight.

I projected this fight to reach a decision 50% of the time; I'd take +110 or better (small).

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (+110, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Vinc Pichel Live after Round 1

Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite

Crowdsourced Projections: Dione Barbosa (68.2%)

The Brazilian, Dione Barbosa, has steamed more than 10% from an opening line nearer to -145 (59.2% implied) than her current -225 (69.2% implied) best available odds.

Both flyweights earned contracts on the Contender Series this past September.

Ernesta Kareckaite, a Lithuanian native, is longer (5" reach advantage), taller (3"), and six years younger. But does she have the power to earn Barbosa's respect and keep the more powerful grappler at range?

Physicality goes a long way in lighter weight classes – and reach means less where power and finishing rates (61.4% decision rate at women's flyweight) are reduced. It could be a long night if Kareckaite doesn't have the pop in her shots to keep Barbosa off of her – or the ability to fight for underhooks and separate from the clinch.

Moreover, if Barbosa consolidates a takedown, Kareckaite's length could work against her on the ground; longer limbs lead to more accessible armbar opportunities (two of six wins from Barbosa).

I don't see value on either side of the moneyline, but I'd bet Kareckaite at +220 if the line continues to tick in her direction.

Additionally, I don't project any value concerning the total. It's a reasonably binary matchup, but I don't think Kareckaite has knockout power. Aside from attritional volume, Barbosa has more finishing upside on the mat.

I project value on Kareckaite by decision (projected +295, listed +350) and would consider poking that prop. If Ernesta fights a winnable fight, she should land substantially more volume across three rounds after landing 184 significant strikes in her Contender Series bout.

I also like a live entry on Kareckaite after Round 1; consolidating takedowns – and retaining the energy for them – will become only more difficult for Barbosa as the fight extends.

Bets

• Ernesta Kareckaite wins by Decision (+350, 0.1u) at Unibet
• Ernesta Kareckaite Live after Round 1

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Crowdsourced Projections: Mauricio Ruffy (71.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Ruffy vs. Mullarkey preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

I see value in Ruffy's moneyline price (projected -247, listed -210) in his UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey, who is coming off a win on Contender Series. Ruffy, a dangerous striker from the Fighting Nerds Gym, appears on this card alongside Caio Borralho.

Mullarkey is a well-rounded UFC veteran who will make his 11th trip to the UFC octagon on Saturday. UFC veterans – who win these matchups against debutants at nearly a 57% clip – are typically undervalued in this spot.

The 29-year-old Aussie is still on the young side of the lightweight age curve. However, he's been knocked out in his past three UFC losses and five of his seven career losses, and he's now officially considered chinny after 24 professional fights.

I bet Nasrat Haqparat, whose power I don't rate particularly highly for the division, to knock out Mullarkey last September. I'm betting Ruffy, a lower-volume but more powerful puncher with the nickname "One Shot," will do the same on Saturday.

I projected Ruffy to win by KO/TKO at -114; bet that prop to -110. I projected his inside the distance line at -131; bet that prop to -125.

And I prefer those prop bets to his moneyline; if Ruffy doesn't finish Mullakrey – or even until he potentially finishes Mullarkey – this fight will play out much more closely than the moneyline price dictates. Mullarkey is likely the more skilled fighter, but his durability is seemingly gone.

Lastly, I projected this fight to end inside the distance about 76% of the time (-288 implied), more frequently than the odds suggest. I'd consider betting the Under 1.5 Rounds (+120) or 2.5 Rounds (-200) – Mullarkey can crack, too, and Ruffy was knocked out in his only career loss.

Bets

• Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO (+100, 0.25u) at FanDuel

Joaquim Silva vs. Drakkar Klose

Crowdsourced Projections: Drakkar Klose (63.6%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Silva vs. Klose preview from my colleague Bryan Fonseca.

I expect this fight to end inside the distance nearly two-thirds of the time (66.3%, -197 implied), and I would bet that prop up to -180 in this matchup.

Both fighters are on the wrong side of the age curve for lightweight (Silva is 35 and Klose 36), and both have durability concerns. Each of their past four losses ended by knockout, Klose has wobbled in several others, and Silva has shown declining cardio as his fights extend.

Even if the knockout doesn't come early, Klose – who has the superior gas tank – may be able to find an attritional finish, which is why I prefer the ends inside the distance prop for this fight, as opposed to the Under 2.5 rounds at a shorter price.

Picking a side, I likely prefer Silva. Most of Klose's favoritism hinges on having a superior chin, but I don't think he has a massive durability edge in this fight. There should be some high-variance exchanges in which both men are swinging.

That said, my projections show value on Kose by KO/TKO (projected +142, listed +210) in the winning method market.

I'll take the no on the distance prop and consider including Klose by KO on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-145, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars

Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai

Crowdsourced Projections: Myktybek Orolbai (70.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Brener vs. Orolbai preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Elves Brener has certainly covered his odds in the UFC – upsetting Zuhaira Tukhugov as a +470 underdog in his debut and Guram Kutateladze as a +475 underdog before scoring a first-round knockout last November as a -210 favorite.

He faces a tough test in his fourth fight against Olobai, a suffocating grappler from Kyrgyzstan who is moving down in weight from 170 to 155 pounds for this matchup. His strength should be a severe problem for opponents.

Orolbai fights in a Khabib-like manner, grinding on opponents with a wrist ride. However, Brener is immensely game no matter the opponent, and he has the defensive jiu-jitsu to keep himself in this fight.

I expect Orolbai to overpower Brener from the outset, but Brener has elite cardio, and perhaps Orolbai tires after cutting down to lightweight for the first time in several years.

As a result, I'd consider live betting Brener anytime after Round 1; if Orolbai dominates the opening frame as expected, you'll likely get a considerable price tag compared to his pre-fight moneyline.

Pre-fight, I'd bet this matchup to reach a decision up to -120 (projected -133, listed -110); Brener has the tools and toughness to stay competitive.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-110, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars
• Elves Brener Live Anytime after Round 1

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Crowdsourced Projections: Iasmin Lucindo (83.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.

This pairing features about as wide an age gap as I can remember in a UFC bout. Lucindo turned 22 in January and is 16 years younger than the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz, who debuted in the UFC when Lucindo was 13.

When there is at least a 15-year age gap between UFC opponents, the younger fighter is 30-15 (66.7%) compared to average odds of -123 (55.3% implied) – in line with other age-related data points I've cited in this piece.

As a result, it's hard to imagine that Lucindo is undervalued at her steep price tag, but history suggests that may be the case.

She is a significantly faster and stronger fighter, has a two-inch reach advantage, and aside from experience, she may have Kowalkiewicz covered in this fight.

I'm not rushing to the window to bet Lucindo at this number, but I may consider using her moneyline in a small parlay.

Bets

• Iasmin Lucindo as a Parlay Piece (up to -460)

Jack Shore vs. Joanderson Brito

Crowdsourced Projections: Joanderson Brito (67%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Shore vs. Brito preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Shore struggled with physicality in his lone career loss to Ricky Simon – and subsequently moved up to featherweight for his most recent bout against Makwan Amirkhani, who won the first round against the Welshman before tiring, which is typically how his fights go.

Brito isn't necessarily bigger on paper, but he's the significantly stronger fighter in this matchup. Shore is highly technical and moves well, but he doesn't have the power to keep Brito off of him, especially early.

The Brazilian should control proceedings from the outset, landing the more damaging shots and getting on top of Shore in grappling exchanges, just with brute force. However, Brito's explosiveness causes him to tire the longer his fights go, and if he can't finish Shore within the first 10 minutes, the momentum can flip late in this fight.

As a result, while I'd bet Brito pre-fight up to around -185 (-203 projected line) because I expect his price to blow out after Round 1, I wouldn't mind a live entry on Shore – who has excellent cardio – at some point after the five-minute mark.

I expect Brito to finish this fight around 50% of the time (-101 implied), and I like his odds of winning inside the distance or ITD (+120 listed), but those chances decrease the longer this fight goes. That said, if this fight extends, I alternatively show value on Shore to win by decision (projected +367, listed +410).

If Shore survives the early onslaught, the momentum may flip midway through this fight. Bet Brito pre-fight, and look for a live entry on Shore, which is a significant number after potentially getting dominated in the opening frame.

I'll also use Brito's ITD prop as a round-robin piece.

Bets

• Joanderson Brito (-165, 0.5u) at BetMGM
• Jack Shore Live Anytime after Round 1

Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho

Crowdsourced Projections: Caio Borralho (84.8%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Craig vs. Borralho preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

I agree with Billy's assessment of the matchup and also expect Caio Borralho to find a finish; I'm just taking a specific method (KO/TKO) at juicier odds (projected +195, listed +225).

Borralho is the superior wrestler in this matchup and can dictate where the fight occurs. He has a massive striking advantage and should probably counter-wrestle Craig's awkward takedown attempts – and stand up when he can.

Borralho typically excels at taking opponents down and controlling them from guard, where Craig is most dangerous. Still, he's the much quicker and more technical man on the feet and far more defensively sound (defending strikes at 60% vs. 45% for Craig). If he can avoid Craig's trick submissions from the guard, this is his fight to lose.

Craig, a former light heavyweight, has looked strong since moving down to middleweight. And he remains as challenging as ever. Still, Craig's cardio is suffering from such a dramatic weight cut, and he succumbed to the pace in his recent main event loss to Brendan Allen.

I typically ignore fighters' statements regarding their expected win conditions for upcoming fights. However, Borralho has made clear his desire to KO Craig and avenge Craig's TKO win over Brazilian legend Mauricio "Shogun" Rua – and that was my initial read for this matchup. I expect Borralho to counter-wrestle and pick apart Craig on the feet.

Borralho is 7-0 under the promotional banner but has just two finishes across those fights. As a result, he failed to secure a Contender Series contract on his first try, and Craig is a highlight-reel clip waiting to happen.

That said, I don't mind a poke at Craig by submission (projected +840, listed +1100); that's the majority of his win condition.

Bets

• Caio Borrlaho wins by KO/TKO (+225, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria

Crowdsourced Projections: Michel Pereira (85.8%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Pereira vs. Potieria preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Pereira is on a seven-fight winning streak and is 8-2 in the UFC, including a DQ loss to Diego Sanchez and a close decision defeat to Tristan Connelly after missing weight.

Since moving up to middleweight, he has looked as strong as ever. Still, he hasn't been able to show off what should be improved cardio – without a dramatic cut to 170 – after finishing a pair of legitimate opponents early in Round 1.

Pereira should have a stamina advantage over Potiera. "The Duelist" typically fades by the halfway mark of his fights.

Pereira has toned down what was once an extremely chaotic and flashy settle and seems more focused while managing his energy better in recent bouts. There's always a chance he succumbs to the energy of the Brazilian crowd and decides to put on a show in pursuit of a performance bonus, but he's a deserving favorite for a reason.

Additionally, Pereira has a massive grappling advantage in this matchup and can seemingly end this fight quickly if he decides to grapple.

To that end, I project value on Pereira to win by submission (projected +366, listed +390) and would poke that prop at +375 or better.

Bets

• Michel Pereira wins by Submission (+390, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino

Crowdsourced Projections: Anthony Smith (80.1%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Smith vs. Petrino preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Ultimately, I'm passing on this matchup. The gap in athleticism is even broader than their nine-year age difference would suggest. Smith also looks physically shot after a 56-fight career but has habitually beaten fraudulent prospects.

I could argue that there's value in Smith's moneyline (projected +403, listed +430) and Smith to win by decision (projected +619, listed +1100).

Petrino has a high ceiling but is still very young in his career; he doesn't maintain an exceptionally high strike output or pursue his most straightforward path to victory. Smith is better at making in-fight adjustments and will find ways to make this competitive on output unless Petrino's power is noticeably hurting him.

Smith has always struggled to check leg kicks – and Petrino will hammer his calves to try to shut down Smith's movement before he goes in for the kill. He'll also look to avoid getting taken down. Smith does his best work when he gets on top of opponents.

I'd expect a tepid start in this fight and for the pace to pick up as the bout extends. However, there's no value in the Over 1.5 Rounds at -200, and I'm passing unless I bet on Smith.

Bets

• Pass

Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo

Crowdsourced Projections: Jonathan Martinez (55.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Martinez vs. Aldo preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

As I mentioned earlier, younger fighters typically have the advantage when opponents have a large age discrepancy.

If the gap is at least seven years, the younger fighter wins 65% of the time compared to average odds of -120 (54.5% implied) – more than a 10% advantage.

Jose Aldo is 37. He is fighting in a smaller weight class, where Martinez will be the significantly quicker man. He's also returning from a long layoff (he last competed in August 2022) and retirement – potentially to retire for a second time after "The King of Rio" gets a proper send-off at home. His loss to Merab Dvailishvili wasn't the fondest farewell.

Aldo is a popular underdog selection this week, but I like the matchup for him stylistically. He's the superior – and more powerful – boxer in this matchup. He has the counter-grappling to keep this fight standing, and he's excellent at checking leg kicks, the primary weapon for Martinez.

Martinez has better cardio, but I don't trust his durability; he's been knocked out (by Davey Grant) and wobbled in other UFC bouts. Martinez is difficult to hit (58% striking defense) due to his excellent movement, but he doesn't absorb damage particularly well when opponents connect cleanly.

Martinez also has the output advantage. However, Aldo could potentially have the more significant moments in the fight, and he'll undoubtedly have the crowd behind him. As a result, I expect to see a close and competitive striking affair, provided Aldo hasn't regressed significantly following a long layoff.

Additionally, I'd give Aldo more finishing upside on the feet and the ability to secure some hometown/MMA legend deference from the judges in a tossup decision.

I projected Aldo as a +123 underdog and would take +125 or better (small). I don't want to invest too heavily after the layoff.

I'll probably stick Aldo's knockout prop (projected +644, listed +650) in a round-robin.

Bets

• Jose Aldo (+130 0.25u) at Caesars
• Jose Aldo (+145, 0.25u) at Caesars

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg

Crowdsourced Projections: Alexandre Pantoja (59.5%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out full Pantoja vs. Erceg preview.

Ideally, I'd take plus money on either fighter – and I like this matchup from a live-betting perspective.

I projected Steve Erceg as a +147 underdog (40.5% implied) in this matchup, and I'd bet him pre-fight (small) at +160 or better.

From there, I'd look to live bet Pantoja at plus money or a pick'em price anytime after Round 1. I expect Erceg to win one of the first two rounds.

I weigh slightly more submission equity to Pantoja (projected +274, listed +325) or decision equity to Erceg (projected +393, listed +460) than the betting market. I show value on either winning method prop.

If I don't find the right price on Erceg pre-fight, I'd take some Pantoja by submission (+300 or better) instead.

Bets

• Steve Erceg (+165, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Alexandre Pantoja Live Anytime After Round 1

Zerillo's UFC 301 Bets

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Moneyline Bets

• Kevin Borjas (+115, 0.5u) at BetMGM
• Joanderson Brito (-165, 0.5u) at BetMGM
• Jose Aldo (+130 0.25u) at Caesars
• Jose Aldo (+145, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Steve Erceg (+165, 0.25u) at Caesars

Prop Bets and Totals

• Borjas/Costa, Fight Goes to Decision (+125,0 .25u) at Caesars
• Bonfim/Pichel, Fight Goes to Decision (+110, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Ernesta Kareckaite wins by Decision (+350, 0.1u) at UniBet
• Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO (+100, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Klose/Silva, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-145, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars
• Brener/Orolbai, Fight Goes to Decision (-110, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars
• Caio Borralho by KO/TKO (+225, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Michel Pereira wins by Submission (+390, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Parlays

• TBD

Live Bets

• Vinc Pichel Live after Round 1
• Ernesta Kareckaite Live after Round 1
• Elves Brener Live Anytime after Round 1
• Jack Shore Live Anytime after Round 1
• Alexandre Pantoja Live Anytime After Round 1

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