UFC Vegas 86 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer: Major Upset in Main Event? (Saturday, February 10)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Jack Hermansson of Norway
Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer at UFC Vegas 86 on Saturday, Feb. 10 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Tonight in Las Vegas – just down the road from Super Bowl LVIII – the UFC Apex facility will host another headliner in the middleweight division with No. 11-ranked UFC contender Jack Hermansson vs. rising prospect Joe Pyfer.
Sweden's Hermansson, a 16-fight UFC octagon veteran, will headline his fourth UFC main event and fight in his ninth career five-round fight.
Pyfer has seen a third round only once in his professional career (in 2018) and enters his first five-round fight on Saturday. The Philadelphia native has dispatched his three UFC opponents in a combined nine minutes and five seconds.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer main event and utilize those factors to bet on these middleweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 9:30 p.m. ET on the ESPN+ fight card.
Tale of the Tape
| Hermansson | Pyfer | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-8 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:42 | 5:03 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/10/1988 | 9/17/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.13 | 3.64 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.69 | 2.34 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.66 | 2.97 |
| TD Acc | 29% | 83% |
| TD Def | 75% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 1.8 |
Pyfer is the younger, faster, stronger fighter and the much more dangerous finisher in the early part of the fight.
While Hermansson is a competent, high-volume, technical kickboxer, he prefers to fight on the edges of a larger octagon. He seems less comfortable with his range in the smaller confines of the UFC Apex (1-2, including a pair of main-event losses to Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori) than he is in the standard 30-foot cage.
Hermansson likes to fire low kicks, combine them with straight punches, stick and move, and keep his opponents chasing him around the cage. However, he doesn't have the power to deter hulking opponents like Pyfer from closing the distance and crashing the pocket; Hermansson has less space to escape pressure in the Apex cage.
A fresh Pyfer should get the better of the striking exchanges early by landing the more brutal, cleaner head strikes; even if Hermansson edges ahead on volume with kicks, he's likely going to get clipped or wobbled and cede the early rounds to Pyfer's boxing on damage optics.
To break that pressure – and avoid getting knocked out in the opening rounds – Hermansson needs to grapple. And he needs to either find a way to push Pyfer up against the fence or, hopefully, take him down and get on top.
"The Joker" has a vicious top game: heavy pressure, with mean ground and pound, and the ability to capitalize on opportunistic submissions.
Hermansson must grapple a presumably aggressive Pyfer – whether successfully or not – to survive the early onslaught. If he does survive the first two rounds, I expect the momentum to swing heavily in his direction. And he's likely an excellent live bet after Rounds 2 and 3.
Pyfer must finish Hermansson within the first couple of rounds to justify his price tag (-275, or 73.3% implied win probability). If he does anything from the outset other than back Hermansson up and attempt to box his head off, the flow of the fight should benefit the underdog.
Hermansson has vastly more experience – especially over five rounds – against a much higher level of middleweight competition, including a former champion and multiple title challengers.
Perhaps Pyfer, who has never faced a five-round test, attempts to conserve his energy early and engage in a low-tempo kickboxing affair; that's Hermansson's preferred style.
If Pyfer fails to pace himself and doesn't finish Hermansson early, I expect him to run out of energy for the second half of the fight – based on the optics of past performances. As a result, Pyfer may end up in Hermansson's preferred sparring kickboxing match while getting progressively more tired for the final three rounds – if not get finished himself.
After wrestling and securing a submission against Abdul Razzak Alhassan in his last fight, there's also the possibility that Pyfer attempts to prove a point against Hermansson early and tries to out-grapple him. And while Pyfer probably can get on top of Hermansson at full strength, I'd consider it a win for Hermansson, who will look to neutralize position and do what he can to drain time off the clock and energy from Pyfer's untested gas tank.
Pyfer is extremely dangerous, and most of his positive outcomes involve a highlight-reel finish in which underdog tickets and overs – both of which are correlated in this fight – look like they never had a chance.
That's the nature of betting on some MMA fights; losses count the same when you lose via knockout in 10 seconds or split decision.
But the ability to stomach and place a bet when a loss likely looks like a video-game fatality hits differently.
Hermansson should take over the fight beyond 10 minutes if he can get there.
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Hermansson vs. Pyfer Pick
I projected Jack Hermansson as a +175 underdog (36.4% implied) in this fight; I would bet his moneyline down to +200 (33.3% implied) pre-fight and look to add more in the live markets after Rounds 2 and 3.
I expect this fight to end inside the distance more than 77% of the time (-340 implied odds), and I don't see value concerning the total or distance props.
However, I see slight value in Pyfer to win by KO/TKO (projected +110, listed +125 at FanDuel) or Hermansson to win by decision (projected +511, listed +700 at DraftKings). Given the cardio dynamic, I may prefer to skip Hermansson's decision prop and instead bet the Swede to win in Round 3 (+2000), Round 4 (+2800), and Round 5 (+3500) if you're looking for some pre-fight dart throws.
Ultimately, I'm happy to take some Hermansson pre-fight and look for an additional live entry as Pyfer's stamina bar possibly drains.
The Picks: Jack Hermansson (+220, 0.5u at Caesars) | Hermansson Live after Round 2 and Round 3
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