UFC Vegas 91 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Expert Best Bets for Saturday (April 27)
Getty Images. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweights Ariane Lipski and Karine Silva
Check out the UFC odds with our expert predictions for UFC Vegas 91 on Saturday.
UFC Vegas 91 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The preliminary card airs on ESPN2 beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT), and the main card is on ESPN beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
UFC Vegas 91 isn't the deepest UFC fight card, especially following the UFC 300 blockbuster, but we've got predictions and picks, nonetheless.
So where should you look to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s ESPN card that present betting value.
Below, you can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections using odds from BetMGM.
*Matchup odds as of Friday and via ESPN BET. Bet on UFC Vegas 91 with our ESPN BET promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Don'Tale Mayes vs. Caio Machado
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
I initially planned to pick and bet on Don'Tale Mayes in this fight. The 32-year-old is still on the young side of the heavyweight age curve and is the bigger man in this matchup (two inches taller, three-inch reach advantage).
Moreover, Mayes (+100) has legitimate UFC wins and has faced a far more difficult strength of schedule than his opponent, Caio Machado (-120).
Mayes can win this matchup if he avoids pocket exchanges, either fighting behind his length from the outside or mixing in takedowns and cage pushing to corral a more athletic – and enthusiastic – opponent.
Neither fighter has great cardio, but Machado remains more active with his hands as his fights go late, which could sway the judges in a close and competitive decision. Mayes can go extended stretches in which he stares at his opponents and doesn't reliably pursue his easiest path to victory.
As a result, while Mayes seemingly has more ways to win this fight, Machado's output gives him a higher floor.
That said, I don't view either heavyweight as a potent finisher, and I expect this fight to reach a decision around 65% of the time (-186 implied odds).
Bet the decision prop up to -170.
The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes vs. Caio Machado Goes to Decision (-140 at WynnBet)
Tony Sartori: Austin Hubbard vs. Michal Figlak
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC prelims feature a lightweight bout between unranked contenders Michal Figlak (-180) and Austin Hubbard (+150) If you want to back Figlak as a sizable favorite, then looking at the prop market is a way to avoid laying nearly two dollars on the moneyline.
Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go to decision, with the odds set at -250 for that market. The question then is which guy is likely to fare better in a bout slated to go to the judges' scorecards?
I would argue for Figlak, and not only because he is the favorite, but also because his style of fighting will almost always give him the benefit of the doubt in the judges' eyes when a round could go either way. Figlak is far more active than Hubbard, and he will keep pushing the pace, throw more strikes and is also likely to do more in the ground exchanges.
While he boasts the advantage on the feet, the favorite could also out-wrestle Hubbard on the mat as well, and I believe his game plan will be to mix in both on Saturday. Hubbard's biggest edge in this fight is that he possesses a good chin and has never been knocked out, which could force a frustrated Figlak to shoot for takedowns if the kickboxing isn't going as well as he expects.
The problem for Hubbard is that, while he is tough, I don't think he will have an answer for the strength of Figlak's wrestling either. At the same time, grappling is not Figlak's M.O., so his two clearest path to victories are by either KO/TKO or decision.
Again going back to Hubbard's toughness and chin, that leaves us with a decision victory as the clearest path for Figlak, which is a route I could see coming regardless of whether he racks up damage on the feet or accumulates control time with his over-powering wrestling on the mat.
The Pick: Michal Figlak by Decision (+150 at BetMGM)
Dann Stupp: Tim Means vs. Uros Medic
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Will Tim Means win his main-card opener with fellow welterweight Uros Medic most of the time? Probably not.
Will he win the bout, say, 50% of the time? Again, I'm not willing to bet on that.
But you know what I am willing to bet on? That Means wins this fight more than 28.6% of the time, which his current odds of +250 suggest.
Means is a 40-year-old fighter's fighter who has 50 career bouts during a colorful 21-year pro career. He's also a former meth addict, gun-shooting victim and convicted felon whose life was all but over before he turned to MMA. Soon, "The Dirty Bird" rose from the ashes.
I mention Means' background only to underscore this simple fact: He's got that dog in him. He's got that magical mix of piss, spit and grit that makes him dangerous as long as the fight clock is ticking. When you're betting your hard-earned dollars on one of the wildest and most unpredictable sports, you want to know that your fighter is willing to walk through hell in a gasoline suit to get the win.
In Saturday's main-card opener, Means (+250) faces the heavily favored Uros Medic (-320). Medic is a solid fighter (though Alaska FC vets are oftentimes auto-fade material) with a trio of KO wins among his 3-2 run in the UFC. But Medic's pro resume (11 fights in all) simply doesn't stack up to Means' CV, and I don't think Medic is going to get the type of standup fight he probably wants in this fight.
At juicy +250 odds, Means is simply getting too much disrespect in the betting markets. I may also dabble with some Round 2 and Round 3 props, but for my official play, I like an ol' fashioned moneyline play on an underdog who's still got a little bite left in him.
The Pick: Tim Means (+250 at ESPN BET)
Billy Ward: Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
UFC Gambling Twitter’s main event this weekend features two ranked women’s flyweights, Karine Silva and Arianne Lipski. I’ve seen strong takes on both sides of the fence – and I’m planting my flag too.
To be honest, I don’t really get the argument on Lipski. She’s on a three-fight winning streak, but those include a contentious split decision win over Melissa Gatto and an armbar win over Casey O’Neil (O’Neil is now 0-2 since tearing her ACL in 2022).
Contrast that to the resume of Karine Silva (-170). She’s 3-0 in the UFC with three first-round submission victories. While Lipski (+140) is a step up in competition, Silva has been utterly dominant so far on the big stage.
There’s an element of "striker vs. grappler" in this fight with Lipski having an extensive muay Thai background. However, I tend to lean toward the grappler in those matchups, especially in the smaller cage at the UFC Apex.
Beyond that, while Lipski is the more technical striker, Silva seems to have more power. Lipski is yet to pick up a knockout win in the UFC; Silva dropped Maryna Moroz on the feet before finishing via "club and sub" in her last fight.
The grappling edge for Silva is significant too. While Lipski has solid submissions, she tends to throw up armbars and hope for the best, but Silva is a strong overall grappler.
Those factors are enough for me to lay the juice on Silva, even a bit past where I took her earlier this week. I also wouldn’t mind Silva Inside the Distance at plus-money as a way to get around the juice.
The Pick: Karine Silva (-150 at BetMGM)
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