Read our UFC 324 predictions for the Saturday, January 24 event live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Paramount+ era begins with a new start time of 5:00 p.m. ET for the prelims and 9:00 p.m. ET for the main card, both airing on Paramount+.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 324 Moneyline Projections
UFC 324 Prop Projections
Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
Derrick Lewis vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
I'm running a significant risk of betting with my head instead of my heart here — but I really like this spot for Derrick Lewis.
The UFC's all-time knockout leader has the ability to beat anyone at his best, thanks to his crushing right hand. He also has a penchant for coming in injured, out of shape, unmotivated, or some combination of the above.
That factor makes it hard to bet on Lewis as a favorite. The risk-to-reward ratio simply isn't there, given how inconsistent he is. However, when he's approaching a three-to-one underdog, the calculus changes.
Lewis has logged just 25 seconds of cage time since May of 2024, so at the very least he's less likely to be dealing with injuries or overuse. That is a sharp contrast to the schedule kept by "Salsa Boy," who is making his sixth walk to the Octagon in the last 10 months. We've seen fighters with similar schedules (Merab Dvalishvili, Alex Pereira) eventually pay the price for their hubris.
I could see that catching up to Cortes-Acosta here, especially since those six fights haven't all been smooth sailing. He lost to Sergei Pavlovich in that window and was also effectively TKO'd by Ante Delija, but video review ruled it was caused by an eyepoke, and Cortes-Acosta came back to win. That official ruling doesn't erase the damage he took following the poke, though. Plus, there's the stress of six training camps, along with potentially some weight cuts based on his usual scale weight near the heavyweight limit.
I also don't expect Cortes-Acosta to grapple here, which means he needs to turn in 15 solid minutes of striking to get a win, while Derrick Lewis just needs one right hand to find its target. That's enough for me at his price point, and I'll be mixing exposure to his +270 moneyline at DraftKings with his +380 KO prop.
Pick: Derrick Lewis +270 (.5u) | by KO +380 (.25u)
