Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds
| Gaethje Odds | +190 |
| Pimblett Odds | -230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120/-110) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 324 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 324 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction for UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 13-fight card, featuring an interim lightweight title bout between No. 4 contender Justin Gaethje and No. 5-ranked Paddy Pimblett.
Gaethje previously won an interim belt against Tony Ferguson at UFC 249, but subsequently lost undisputed title challenges against both Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. He then won the BMF belt against Dustin Poirier, before losing it to Max Holloway. Still, Gaethje has won three of his past four bouts and enters off a win last March against Rafael Fiziev.
Pimblett enters with a 7-0 promotional record, including five by finish, amid a nine-fight winning streak; however, he is just 1-2 in main events that went to the championship rounds (all from 2016-2018 in Cage Warriors).
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 324 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these lightweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night.
Here's my Gaethje vs. Pimblett pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Gaethje | Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-5 | 23-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:14 | 8:56 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/14/1988 | 1/3/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.59 | 5.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 58% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 7.18 | 3.14 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 42% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.1 | 0.96 |
| TD Acc | 14% | 28% |
| TD Def | 68% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 1.7 |
Pimblett is the younger, faster man in this matchup – and he retains full grappling upside against Gaethje, the superior boxer.
Gaethje has a 3" reach advantage, and offers the more powerful and damaging leg kicks, but he has spent 94% of his career fight time at striking distance, compared to 44% for Pimblett, who has also shown himself to be the more efficient striker at range; outlanding his oppoisition by 2.2 significant strikes per minute, compared to a negative -0.9 margin for Gaethje, albeit against drastically different levels of competition.
While Gaethje has solid first-layer takedown defense (68%), he has shown limited defensive jiu-jitsu abilities on his back, allowing his opponents to transition to dangerous positions with relative ease.
Pimblett may only need one takedown — and a subsequent back take — to win this fight — but if he can reliably get to that position without finishing, he could also coast to a wide decision victory.
Still, Gaethje has proven his mettle in the championship rounds more recently than Pimblett has, and if he can keep this fight standing — and avoid getting taken down — he should have a striking advantage over the Englishman.
Pimblett has shown an excellent chin thus far in his MMA career, but he is extremely hittable (42% striking defense) and arguably lost his fight against Jared Gordon by getting outboxed and consistently eating lead hooks; imagine what Gaethje would do to him with 25 minutes of boxing, as opposed to 15.
Still, Gaethje is nearing the end of a violent career, and his chin and durability are becoming a concern, given the cumulative damage across 14 UFC bouts and his brutal KO loss to Holloway.
Gaethje could be worth live betting at some point during this matchup, if he's able to weather the early storm from Paddy and show that he can scramble up from takedowns or avoid them altogether.
And I would also consider his pre-fight odds to win in Rounds 4 or 5 at longshot odds; Pimblett really looked worn out in the championship rounds of his Cage Warriors fights.
However, I do think his cardio has improved in the past eight years, and I view Gaethje as the more public side of this matchup.
The public is backing Gaethje to win this fight nearly 40% of the time across my data samples, compared to average implied odds nearer to 30%. As a result, both the favorite and the finish props are potentially undervalued in a binary stylistic clash.
Gaethje vs. Pimblett Pick, Prediction
I projected Paddy Pimblett as a 70.5% favorite in this matchup (-239 implied odds), and I don't show actionable value on either side of the moneyline; I'd need something closer to -220 or better to back the favorite on the moneyline at a near two percent edge.
However, I do project an edge on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -349, listed -290) and I would consider betting both the distance prop, along with the Under 2.5 Rounds (+100) or Under 3.5 Rounds (-175).
Furthermore, I show an edge on Pimblett to win by submission (projected +137, listed +155), although his inside the distance prop (projected -127) falls just outside of the range of bettable lines (listed -130 or higher).
Sean's Picks: Under 2.5 (-105 at Fanatics); bet to -125 | Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-278, at BetRivers); bet to -330
