Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson Odds
| Perez Odds | +145 |
| Johnson Odds | -175 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-195/+150) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 324 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 324 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson prediction for UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Perez vs. Johnson pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Perez | Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-10-0 | 18-7-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:03 | 13:17 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 3/21/1992 | 1/10/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.16 | 4.73 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.22 | 3.78 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.28 | 0.56 |
| TD Acc | 48% | 20% |
| TD Def | 75% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.4 |
Perez vs. Johnson Pick, Prediction
Alex Perez missed weight on Friday, coming in 2.5 pounds over the Flyweight limit of 126 lbs; he was fined 20 percent of his purse, and the fight will continue.
Still, we could see a similar dynamic as Perez's recent bouts, where he's often leading until snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (against Asu Almabayev, Tatsuro Taira and Mohammed Mokaev), unless he gets spooked and finished quickly (by Deiveison Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantjoja).
Perez is incredibly talented, and on his best day, can defeat anyone at Flyweight. Still, his best days are also behind him, and the weight miss could further compromise his chances against a tenacious opponent in Charles Johnson.
Johnson is only a year younger than Perez, but he's the bigger man (3" taller, 5" reach advantage) and the better boxer. Perez offers better striking defense on paper — since Johnson is willing to jump into the fire — but I'd anticipate that he'll be unable to stop Johnson's forward pressure in the latter stages of this fight.
Perez's success should be front-loaded; he's an excellent wrestler who could potentially control Johnson on the ground (74% vs. 22% control rate), but Johnson's takedown defense (66%) and scrambling are marketably improved relative to his promotional debut. He also has a nasty front choke series to discourage Perez from shooting recklessly.
I'm comfortable taking pre-fight positions on Johnson by KO/TKO (projected +461, listed +600) or to win in Rounds 2 (+750) or 3 (+1000), but I might wait live until after Round 1 for the optimal price on his moneyline.
Projection: Charles Johnson (63.1%)
Sean's Picks:
- Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO (+600, 0.1u) at BetRivers; bet to +500
- Charles Johnson wins in Round 2 (+800, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +600
- Charles Johnson wins in Round 3 (+1050, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +700
- Charles Johnson Live after Round 1
