Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Odds
| Nurmagomedov Odds | -1450 |
| Figueiredo Odds | +850 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175/+135) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 324 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 324 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo prediction for UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Nurmagomedov vs. Figueiredo pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Nurmagomedov | Figueiredo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-1 | 25-5-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:57 | 12:54 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/13/1996 | 12/18/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.08 | 2.75 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.04 | 3.54 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.30 | 1.71 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 35% |
| TD Def | 79% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.3 |
Nurmagomedov vs. Figueiredo Pick, Prediction
Deiveison Figuiredo missed weight on Friday, coming in 2.5 pounds over the Bantamweight allowance of 136 lbs; he was fined 20 percent of his purse, and the fight will continue.
Regardless of the weight miss, at first glance, it's difficult to imagine that Fiigueiredo – the former Flyweight champion – isn't undervalued as the most significant underdog on the card; still, this is an extremely difficult stylistic matchup, and Nurmagomedov is nine years his junior.
Figueiredo just pulled an upset against Montel Jackson as a +275 underdog, despite a significant discrepancy in height and reach (5" shorter, 7" reach). Umar (3" taller, 1" reach over Figueiredo), but he's a dominant control grappler (93% vs. 50% control rate) and relentless wrestler (averages 5.2 attempts per five minutes at distance). While Figueiredo has a lethal guillotine, his takedown defense (57%) is subpar, and he can get stuck on his back for decent stretches.
Moreover, while Umar has been rocked on the feet by other opponents, Figeiredo's power, which was elite at 125, hasn't necessarily translated to the higher weight class, and he's likely to fall behind in value (+1.6 to -1.2 strike differential for Umar) in an extended kickboxing match.
I set this fight to reach a decision near 65% of the time (-183 implied), and I would bet the distance prop to around -170, compared to listed odds as low as -136.
Alternatively, or in addition, I show value on Umar to win by decision (projected -147, listed -115), which you can take to -135. That said, he has seen the scorecards in five of his past six fights, following three consecutive finishes to begin his UFC career, and I'd imagine that Nurmagomedov will hunt for a submission to reassert his status in the title picture.
Projection: Umar Nurmagomedov (87.1%)
Sean's Picks:
- Fight Goes to Decision (-130, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -170
- Umar Nurmagomedov wins by Decision (-112, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -135
