We're getting numbered events on consecutive weeks to start the year, with UFC 325 from Australia immediately after what turned out to be a highly entertaining UFC 324 card. This one is headlined by a rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes for the featherweight title.
The 14-fight card starts at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the main card at 9:00.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 325 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 325 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Alexander Volkanovski (-162) vs. Diego Lopes (+136)
Heading into the first matchup against Diego Lopes, there were serious concerns that Alexander Volkanovski was washed. He had been knocked out in consecutive fights by Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev, the first stoppage losses of his career since a welterweight bout in 2013.
Volkanovski silenced those concerns with a vintage performance, nearly tripling his Brazilian opponent on significant strikes en route to winning four of the fight's five rounds. However, Lopes was able to drop Volkanovski in the second round, a concerning sign considering all the damage taken by the featherweight GOAT in his previous fights.
Volkanovski hasn't competed in the nine months since his first matchup with Lopes, though, which should help with his durability here. Lopes competed in the interim, starching Jean Silva with a spinning backfist in the second round. He also dominated Silva on the ground during the first round of that bout, and would be well served by trying to soften up Volkanovski with some grappling early.
Either way, I'm somewhat surprised Volkanovski isn't a heavier favorite this time around, with the betting line roughly equal to what it was at their first meeting. Given that one fighter dominated most of that bout, you'd expect a price adjustment in his favor.
I'm not betting it yet, but that makes Volkanovski somewhat undervalued here.
Verdict: Volkanovski Undervalued
Mauricio Ruffy (-118) vs. Rafel Fiziev (-102)
The first UFC bet I made this year was on Mauricio Ruffy, who had moneyline odds as high as +140 or so at the end of 2025, but has been continuously bet down to the point of being a slight favorite.
While I was only able to get +105 by the time I saw the line movement, it's a pretty solid sign as to where the sharp money is siding in this matchup, since casual bettors aren't typically betting a month before the fight. The movement is especially noteworthy since roughly two-thirds of Tapology predictions are on Fiziev.
Both Ruffy and Fiziev are primarily strikers, but Ruffy is the more powerful and dynamic of the two. Fiziev has been using his wrestling more in recent bouts, which is a concern for Ruffy, who was mauled on the ground by Benoit Saint-Denis. However, he had 100% takedown defense prior to that fight, so I'm not especially concerned with that angle here.
Jump on Ruffy's moneyline now before it moves even further, with the -118 line on DraftKings the best available on Monday morning.
Verdict: Mauricio Ruffy Undervalued
Jacob Malkoun (-180) vs. Torrez Finney (+150)
Jacob Malkoun is 4-3 in the UFC, with all three wins against opponents he was able to dominate with wrestling, and a fluky victory over Andre Petroski — who knocked himself out by headbutting Malkoun's hip while attempting to shoot.
That's a bad sign against Torrez Finney, a much better athlete who was a multiple-time state champion wrestler in high school and competed at the D1 level in college. That has translated well to the UFC/MMA, with Finney securing 36 takedowns across four UFC/DWCS bouts, while not being taken down a single time.
This could be the case where Finney uses his wrestling defensively to avoid the superior submission grappling skills of Malkoun. In that case, we'd get a relatively sloppy striking match between two men not known for their skills in that area. In that case, I'd slightly prefer the speed and power of Finney, but more importantly, would bet on either man at significant plus money.
We're getting that in Finney, especially with DraftKings' +150 line being something of an outlier. Grab that as soon as possible, before they fall in line with the +125 or so lines offered elsewhere.
Verdict: Finney Undervalued
