Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong Odds
| O'Malley Odds | -205 |
| Song Odds | +170 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-250/+190) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 324 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 324 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong prediction for UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
With a past win over current UFC champion Petr Yan, Sean O'Malley could find himself in a perfect position to reclaim the bantamweight title with a win against Song Yadong at UFC 324.
This is the first fight for O'Malley following a pair of losses to Merab Dvalishvili, and Yadong represents an entirely different and much more favorable style for the former champion. However, Yadong is a dangerous up-and-comer who has been working on his grappling in preparation for this matchup, but will it be enough against the talented striker?
Here's my O'Malley vs. Song pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| O'Malley | Song | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-3 | 22-8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:19 | 13:05 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 67" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/24/1994 | 12/2/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.30 | 4.58 |
| SS Accuracy | 61% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.48 | 4.00 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.27 | 0.61 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 38% |
| TD Def | 61% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.1 |
When I first watched Sean O'Malley's controversial decision win over Petr Yan, I thought "Suga" was gifted an undeserved decision. However, upon rewatching it in preparation for the fight, I realized the fight was much closer than it appeared in my memory.
O'Malley was taken down six times by Yan in that fight, but surrendered less than six minutes of control time and was able to return to his feet on every occasion. He also outstruck the champ 84 to 56 on significant strikes and landed the more impactful shots of the two.
I've found that fight to be a better measuring stick for O'Malley than his more recent losses to Merab Dvalishvili, since Song has also faced Yan — but more importantly, because no fighter in UFC history has a style like Dvalishvili.
O'Mallet is an extremely smooth striker who uses his long limbs to generate power without having to load up on shots. That's a massive edge defensively in multiple ways. First, by not having to press forward onto his front foot, he can more easily defend takedown attempts coming back at him. Second, he remains in a better position to defend strikes. Finally, it's also a huge boost to his cardio, since he's not over-exerting himself trying to do damage.
O'Malley looked completely gassed against Dvalishvili, but those fights were primarily wrestling matches. In fights that he was able to keep standing, he's typically increased his output round over round, especially in five-round fights. That could be an issue here, as it's his first three-round contest in a while, and he needs to up his pace for a fight 60% of the length he's used to.
The key question, though, is whether the newfound dedication to grappling will be enough for the "Kung Fu Kid." He came into the organization primarily known for his striking, but it would be unwise to try to match O'Malley in that department.
He now trains with the wrestling-based Team Alpha Male and has been dedicating this training camp to wrestling. That's not something you can learn in the course of a single camp, but the newfound focus could pay dividends. The problem is that he'll have to close the range against O'Malley for that wrestling to have an effect. That's likely going to prove difficult given O'Malley's 5-inch reach edge and the larger UFC apex cage.
Plus, there's a difference between taking someone down and keeping them there. Song was able to do so against Chris Gutierrez, but O'Malley is a much more gifted athlete, and one who won't be caught off-guard by Song's attempts at wrestling in the way Gutierrez was.
O'Malley vs. Song Pick, Prediction
While I like O'Malley as the side here, the -205 line is a bit steeper than I would've hoped. It's worth pointing out that this is the second fight back following an injury layoff for O'Malley, a spot where I typically look to target fighters, but that's generally because we get a better price following a loss.
O'Malley's popularity with casual fans is large enough that we aren't getting that adjustment here. While I still believe him to be the stronger prefight side, I'm not willing to risk more than two units to win one. Instead, I'll be starting with a one-unit bet to win roughly half a unit at -205 via DraftKings, then looking to add on in the live market.
The perfect scenario here is that Song has a strong Round 1 that narrows the line without forcing O'Malley to wrestle extensively. If that happens, I'll be increasing my exposure on the Montana native at the best available price, whatever that may be at the time.
Billys Picks: Sean O'Malley -205 DraftKings (1u) | O'Malley Live
