Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images. Pictured: Waldo Cortes Acosta
Check out my UFC 324 predictions for every fight on tonight's pay-per-view at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Below, I look at the latest UFC 324 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.
Let's break it down.
UFC 324 Predictions
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value, and after looking at the UFC 324 odds, today's event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 3223odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter's likelihood of winning by Decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance and for each fighter to win inside the distance.
Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.
Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller
Welterweight Bout
Odds
Adam Fugitt
+350
Ty Miller
-455
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
-175/+135
Projection: Ty Miller (85.7%)
Unbeaten prospect Ty Miller will make his UFC debut this weekend following a contract-earning performance on Contender Series in August against Jimmy Drago, as a -240 favorite.
Miller, a former two-time Golden Gloves champion, will face a wrestler in Adam Fugitt, who is 11 years his senior and has a 2-2 UFC record (including a Contender Series loss to future title contender Michael Morales).
Still, Fugitt's promotional wins over Josh Quinlan and Kinoshita didn't age well; neither fighter saw success at this level, and while he could test Miller's grappling, I would expect the younger man to gradually increase his pace and aggression after successfully defending takedowns and shaking off some early debutant nerves in an arena.
I view Miller as a solid parlay piece — setting his moneyline closer to -600, compared to odds closer to -450; include him in parlays up to -575.
Moreover, I also show value in the fight to reach a decision (projected +128, listed +180).
You can combine those opinions and consider a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with Miller and the Over 1.5 Rounds at plus money, or bet Miller to win by Decision (projected +170, listed +270).
I prefer the SGP among those angles, while waiting for a potential live angle on Miller, and I would also consider his odds to win in Round 2 (+420) or Round 3 (+700), given the age gap between the athletes and the binary nature of this stylistic matchup.
Bets
SGP: Ty Miller & Over 1.5 Rounds (+100, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to -120
Parlay (+108, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Ty Miller (-460), Natalia Silva (-340), Waldo Cortes Acosta (-310); bet to -110
A pair of collegiate wrestlers will square off in Saturday's early Heavyweight tilt, as former All-American freestylist and NFL practice squad member fullback Josh Hokit faces an All-Marine Greco-Roman practitioner in Denzel Freeman.
Freeman is the bigger man — with a 4" reach advantage, and coming in with an additional 23 pounds on his body over Hokit at Friday's weigh-ins (257.5 vs. 234.5); still, I view Hokit as the superior athlete, better cage wrestler, and the much quicker fighter.
And while I bet on Freeman (as a best bet for that card!) in his UFC debut against Marek Bullo, I was wholly unimpressed with Freeman's effort; he didn't attempt a takedown and showed little striking urgency against an opponent who was subsequently cut after one fight — a rarity for the promotion, especially in a shallow Heavyweight division.
I show a small edge on Hokit's moneyline and would consider him a parlay piece at around -240.
I would also target Hokit Live after Round 1; Freeman may successfully cage-push him early, but I'd expect Hokit to eventually find his way back to striking range, where he can utilize his speed advantage.
I project an edge on Hokit's knockout prop (projected +175, listed +300). I would also consider betting him to win in Round 2 (+500) or 3 (+850), given the attritional effect his chain wrestling seems to have on Heavyweights.
Bets
SGP: Josh Hokit & Over 1.5 Rounds (+145, 0.2u) at BallyBet; bet to +125
Josh Hokit wins in Round 2 (+500, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
Josh Hokit wins in Round 3 (+925, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +800
As we approach fight day, the betting line has continued to move in against Alexander Hernandez, who opened closer to -215 (68.3%) for this fight and has become closer to a pick'em after weigh-ins.
Hernandez is six years younger than the 39-year-old Johnson, who is the slightly bigger athlete (1" taller, 1" reach) and the better striker (+1.3 differential per minute at distance, to -0.3 for Hernandez).
Still, both men hit hard, and I likely prefer Hernandez's durability at this stage of their respective careers.
Moreover, Hernandez has the grappling upside in this matchup, doubling Johnson's control rate (61% to 32% of grappling time in the clinch or on the mat) and takedown rate (1.4 to 0.7 per five minutes at distance).
Johnson offers strong takedown defense (81%), but Hernandez has excellent top pressure and superior jiu-jitsu skills; he may only need two takedowns – one in separate rounds – to win the fight from top position.
I think Hernandez's opening line was closer to accurate than his current odds — I make him a -177 favorite and would play him up to around -165.
Moreover, I project an edge on the fight to end inside the distance, setting that prop at -141, compared to odds nearer to -105; bet that prop to -130.
Lastly, I show an edge on Hernandez to win by KO/TKO, setting those odds at +242, compared to a line of +360; you could sprinkle that prop individually – in addition to playing Hernandez on the moneyline, and the finish prop – or you can save it to spice up round robin tickets.
Bets
Alexander Hernandez (-108, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -165
Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to -130
Alex Perez missed weight on Friday, coming in 2.5 pounds over the Flyweight limit of 126 lbs; he was fined 20 percent of his purse, and the fight will continue.
Still, we could see a similar dynamic as Perez's recent bouts, where he's often leading until snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (against Asu Almabayev, Tatsuro Taira and Mohammed Mokaev), unless he gets spooked and finished quickly (by Deiveison Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantjoja).
Perez is incredibly talented, and on his best day, can defeat anyone at Flyweight. Still, his best days are also behind him, and the weight miss could further compromise his chances against a tenacious opponent in Charles Johnson.
Johnson is only a year younger than Perez, but he's the bigger man (3" taller, 5" reach advantage) and the better boxer. Perez offers better striking defense on paper — since Johnson is willing to jump into the fire — but I'd anticipate that he'll be unable to stop Johnson's forward pressure in the latter stages of this fight.
Perez's success should be front-loaded; he's an excellent wrestler who could potentially control Johnson on the ground (74% vs. 22% control rate), but Johnson's takedown defense (66%) and scrambling are marketably improved relative to his promotional debut. He also has a nasty front choke series to discourage Perez from shooting recklessly.
I'm comfortable taking pre-fight positions on Johnson by KO/TKO (projected +461, listed +600) or to win in Rounds 2 (+750) or 3 (+1000), but I might wait live until after Round 1 for the optimal price on his moneyline.
Bets
Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO (+600, 0.1u) at BetRivers; bet to +500
Charles Johnson wins in Round 2 (+800, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +600
Charles Johnson wins in Round 3 (+1050, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +700
While Nikita Krylov owns an 11-9 promotional record, he is 0-2 with a pair of first round knockout losses since returning from a two-year layoff in April; conversely, Modestas Bukauskas is 7-1 in his second promotional stint, following an initial 0-3 run (and catastrophic knee injury at the hands of Khalil Rountree Jr.) from 2020-2021.
By the numbers, Krylov is the more effective fighter, outlanding opponents by 2.6 strikes per minute at distance, compared to a negative margin (-0.9) for Bukauskas. Moreover, Krylov spends more of his fight time grappling (66% vs. 23%) and controls the majority of those positions (59%) while Bukauskas is slightly below water (47%) in control time.
For his career, Krylov has averaged 5.6 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, but he didn't shoot once in nearly seven minutes of cage time in the two fights since his return.
I bet on Krylov (and lost) in both of those matchups — and clearly the betting market likes him here too, as he has moved down from an opening line closer to +165 (37.7% implied), nearer to +120 (45.5% implied) as of writing. On balance, my model makes him a small favorite, as fans and bettors are backing Bukauskas at a near 75% clip, compared to implied odds closer to 58% (and shrinking).
Additionally, I project value on the fight to go to Decision (projected +333, listed +400) or the Over 1.5 Rounds (+105), and think the odds for Krylov to win a decision (projected +554, listed +1000) are clearly skewed.
In his UFC career, Krylov is 2-2 on the scorecards, with legitimate wins over Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, and quality losses to former champions Glover Teixeira and Magomed Ankalaev; he's capable of accumulating top time (11 minutes vs. Walker; 9 vs. Oezdemir) and draining the clock if he sticks to a gameplan.
Still, it's difficult to have a high degree of confidence in Krylov — or his durability, given the relatively quick turnaround from a pair of knockout losses.
Bets
Nikita Krylov (+125, 0.4u) at BetMGM; bet to +105
Over 1.5 Rounds (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +100
Ateba Gautier is a frightening prospect at middleweight, with a significant power and reach advantage (3" over Pulyaev) against the majority of the 185-pound division.
Gautier has finished each of his promotional fights in the first round, following a second-round knockout on Contender Series. Still, he's priced in this matchup like he's he's facing a short notice debutant, or contender series loser, as opposed to Pulyaev – who earned a contract himself with a win on Contender Series (albeit as a +200 underdog), and has a 1-1 promotional record (with a win over Nick Klein, who also pulled an upset on Conteder Series).
Pulyaev has a round 1 knockout loss regionally from 2023, and doesn't offer much of a grappling threat to force Gautier to stay measured at range; however, he showed toughness in his loss to Christian Leroy Duncan, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him withstand some damage against Gautier while sticking around until the back half of the fight. His best chance is to play rope-a-dope and look to survive until Gautier potentially wilts.
If I had a free bet on this fight, I would consider an SGP with Gautier and the Under 1.5 Rounds (-200). However, I don't project actionable value here – on any sides, totals, or props, and it's an easy spot to pass from a betting perspective.
Deiveison Figuiredo missed weight on Friday, coming in 2.5 pounds over the Bantamweight allowance of 136 lbs; he was fined 20 percent of his purse, and the fight will continue.
Regardless of the weight miss, at first glance, it's difficult to imagine that Fiigueiredo – the former Flyweight champion – isn't undervalued as the most significant underdog on the card; still, this is an extremely difficult stylistic matchup, and Nurmagomedov is nine years his junior.
Figueiredo just pulled an upset against Montel Jackson as a +275 underdog, despite a significant discrepancy in height and reach (5" shorter, 7" reach). Umar (3" taller, 1" reach over Figueiredo), but he's a dominant control grappler (93% vs. 50% control rate) and relentless wrestler (averages 5.2 attempts per five minutes at distance). While Figueiredo has a lethal guillotine, his takedown defense (57%) is subpar, and he can get stuck on his back for decent stretches.
Moreover, while Umar has been rocked on the feet by other opponents, Figeiredo's power, which was elite at 125, hasn't necessarily translated to the higher weight class, and he's likely to fall behind in value (+1.6 to -1.2 strike differential for Umar) in an extended kickboxing match.
I set this fight to reach a decision near 65% of the time (-183 implied), and I would bet the distance prop to around -170, compared to listed odds as low as -136.
Alternatively, or in addition, I show value on Umar to win by decision (projected -147, listed -115), which you can take to -135. That said, he has seen the scorecards in five of his past six fights, following three consecutive finishes to begin his UFC career, and I'd imagine that Nurmagomedov will hunt for a submission to reassert his status in the title picture.
Bets
Fight Goes to Decision (-130, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -170
Umar Nurmagomedov wins by Decision (-112, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -135
Saturday's main card opener should be an exciting tilt as Jean Silva encounters Arnold Allen in a battle between "autistic brothers." Silva, who was diagnosed with autism after his last fight, has subsequently diagnosed Allen, who brought his emotional support cat along for fight week. While there is hesitancy that Silva could rein in his aggression following his first career knockout loss, he promised to let the fans see "two autistic dudes really going at it" in return for Dana White increasing the performance bonuses for Saturday.
I'm a fan of both fighters and have generally found Allen to be the more underrated of the pair; he's the bigger man (1′ taller, 1" reach advantage) and the superior wrestler (75% takedown defense), with potentially better stamina than Silva too.
Still, Silva has a speed advantage, more power, and better fight-ending submission grappling, and I would expect his aggressive pressure to force Allen into unfamiliar territory – a high-paced war.
Silva is much more open defensively of the pair (54% vs. 61% striking defense) because he's always coming forward. In contrast, Allen is more calculated, and I would expect Allen's defense to worsen if he is crowded in the pocket and facing unrelenting pressure from the Brazilian.
While I don't project value on either side of the moneyline, I do project this fight to end inside the distance more often than the odds suggest (projected -125, listed -106), and I would play the fight to end by finish, up to -120.
Additionally, I project a small edge on Silva to win by KO/TKO (projected +152, listed +175).
Bets
Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-106, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -120
With her consensus pricetag closer to -350, I would have recommended Natalia Silva as a parlay piece against Rose Namajunas; she should have a significant speed advantage and prove to be the far more efficient striker (outlanding opponents by 3.2 strikes per minute, compared to 0.3 for Namajunas) across a 15-minute contest. You can include her in a parlay up to -380.
Silva offers excellent footwork and movement, attacks opponents from unique angles, and maintains her balance while offering excellent defense (92%) against reactive takedowns.
Namajunas likely needs to grapple to win this fight; she has three times the control rate (67% vs. 21%) as Silva in grappling exchanges, and unless she lands takedowns and controls Silva on the mat, or finds a head kick as she did against Zhang Weili, I'd expect her to lose a fairly one-sided decision.
I do show small edges on the fight to go to Decision (projected -445, listed -400) or Silva to win by decision (projected -193, listed -180), depending upon the book; however, I might prefer her pointspread (-3.5, -115) up to -125, as she ascends toward title contention.
Derrick Lewis remains a popular public underdog selection heading into his 31st career UFC bout; the promotion's all-time knockout leader is garnering 44% of public support in my sample for this fight, compared to implied odds nearer to 26%.
Lewis is 41 years old, seven years the senior of Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who enters with a 9-2 promotional record, although his win two back against Ante Delija remains controversial. I bet on Delija in that fight, and he seemingly won by TKO after hurting Cortes Acosta against the fence, but the ruling was overturned due to an eye-poke. After the bout was mistakenly restarted, Waldo stormed back against an opponent who clearly had an adrenaline dump after celebrating.
While Waldo did get hurt in that fight by a puncher with quicker hands but less power than Lewis, he also showed his typically excellent durability against the subsequent, undefended shots and incredible fortitude and recoverability to come back and win.
Lewis's success often comes down to whether or not opponents can absorb his death touch without folding, and his survivability is most dependent on how quickly they start to work his lower half.
While I do trust Waldo – more than most Heavyweights – to absorb Lewis's power without getting wobbled or dropped, he is a bit of a headhunter offensively. He would be well-served to mix level changes in his combinations and offer additional low kicks against Lewis, who is far more durable to the head than he is to the body or legs.
I could see a bit of clinch grappling in this fight to extend things to the second or third round; across 30 UFC bouts, Lewis has spent 48% of his fight time in grappling or control positions. However, Waldo has a 57% control rate in grappling positions (clinch or mat), more than double Lewis's 24% rate.
While Waldo has started faster in his past two bouts – after dropping a decision to Sergei Pavlovich- I could see him being tentative early as he navigates a slight 1" reach discrepancy and avoids Lewis's power.
Still, considering the public love for the Black Beast, my model sets Waldo closer to 80% (-400 implied) than 75% (-300 implied) for this matchup, and I would use him as a parlay piece to -370.
Additionally, I would play his odds to win in Round 2 (+470) or Round 3 (+700), and target him live after Round 1, after a potentially cautious start, rather than playing his odds to win inside the distance (projected -120, listed -115).
Bets
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins in Round 2 (+470, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins in Round 3 (+700, 0.1u) at ScoreBet; bet to +600
Although he is 31, there is a distinct possibility we have already seen Sean O'Malley's peak. I thought he looked flat, discouraged, and a bit slower than usual in his rematch loss to Merab Dvalishvili, and he has already mentioned potential retirement after this year.
Hearing a fighter discuss retirement should always be a red flag – although it's in the UFC's best interest to set up a rematch between one of their biggest stars, and current champion Petr Yan, whom O'Malley defeated en route to his own title shot. Not to mention, a USA-Russia title fight on the White House card sells itself.
Still, Song Yadong is the younger man (three years) and on an upward trajectory in his career. He'll need to navigate a height and reach discrepancy (3" shorter, 5" reach) against O'Malley, the more efficient distance striker (+4.0 to +0.4 differential per minute).
Still, while O'Malley is a better kicker, Song is the more dangerous pocket boxer, with bigger power, and there's a strong possibility that he may proactively grapple too, and attempt to top time O'Malley, as he did with Chris Gutierrez (11 minutes of control in a 25-minute fight).
He has trained with Uriah Faber at Team Alpha Male since 2017. While his defensive wrestling is excellent, his offensive grappling has improved, too, but he hasn't been able to implement it against very good anti-grapplers (Henry Cejudo, Ricky Simon, Petr Yan) in his recent bouts; O'Malley's defensive wrestling and grappling aren't on their level.
O'Malley has shown discouragement against pressure fighters, and Song is likely the most physical opponent he has faced, aside from Merab. If Song can land takedowns, any takedown could be a round in his favor (59% vs. 6% control rate for their respective careers), as I suspect he may be able to use his strength to consolidate top position.
My main concern is that Song, like Yan, tends to start slowly and build — I prefer him in five-round fights as opposed to three, whereas O'Malley typically has strong opening rounds. If Song doesn't grapple early, you may have to wait five minutes to find the peak underdog price.
Still, Suga Sean is the heavy public side (78% in my sample vs. 65% listed), and I would both bet Song pre-fight (projected +153; bet to +165) and add more live after Round 1.
Additionally, I would take Song's point spread (+3.5, -150) up to -185, and consider his decision prop (projected +281, listed +320) either for small stakes or as a round-robin leg.
Bets
Song Yadong (+175, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +165
Song Yadong +3.5 Points (-150, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to -185
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this fight, make sure to check out my full fight preview.
In short, I don't show actionable value on either side of the moneyline. However, I do project an edge on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -349, listed -290) and I would consider betting both the distance prop, along with the Under 2.5 Rounds (+100) or Under 3.5 Rounds (-175).
Furthermore, I show an edge on Pimblett to win by submission (projected +137, listed +150).
Bets
Under 2.5 Rounds (-105, 0.25u) at Fanatics; bet to -125
Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-278, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -330
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Moneyline Bets
Alexander Hernandez (-108, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -165
Nikita Krylov (+125, 0.4u) at BetMGM; bet to +105
Song Yadong (+175, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +165
Prop Bets and Totals
Josh Hokit wins in Round 2 (+500, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
Josh Hokit wins in Round 3 (+925, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +800
Hernandez/Johnson Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to -130
Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO (+600, 0.1u) at BetRivers; bet to +500
Charles Johnson wins in Round 2 (+800, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +600
Charles Johnson wins in Round 3 (+1050, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +700
Krylov/Bukauskas, Over 1.5 Rounds (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +100
Figueiredo/Nurmagomedov, Fight Goes to Decision (-130, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -170
Umar Nurmagomedov wins by Decision (-112, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -13
Allen/Silva, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-106, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -120
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins in Round 2 (+470, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins in Round 3 (+700, 0.1u) at ScoreBet; bet to +600
Song Yadong +3.5 Points (-150, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to -185
Pimblett/Gaethje, Under 2.5 Rounds (-105, 0.25u) at Fanatics; bet to -125
Pimblett/Gaethje, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-278, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -330
Parlays
Parlay (+104, 0.25u) at Caesars: Ty Miller (-460), Natalia Silva (-360), Waldo Cortes Acosta (-320); bet to -110
SGP: Ty Miller & Over 1.5 Rounds (+100, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to -120
SGP: Josh Hokit & Over 1.5 Rounds (+145, 0.2u) at BallyBet; bet to +125
Live Bets
Ty Miller Live after Round 1
Josh Hokit Live after Round 1
Charles Johnson Live after Round 1
Natalie Silva Live after Round 1
Waldo Cortes Acosta Live after Round 1
Song Yadong Live after Round 1
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About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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