NASCAR Odds for Atlanta: 8-1 Prop Pick for Ambetter Health 400 (Sunday, Feb 25)

NASCAR Odds for Atlanta: 8-1 Prop Pick for Ambetter Health 400 (Sunday, Feb 25) article feature image

Photo by Chris McDill/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: A pack of cars race for position at Atlanta Motor Speedway

Thanks to rain in Daytona, it's a quick turnaround for teams, drivers and NASCAR bettors ahead of the Ambetter Health 400 0n Sunday (3 p.m. ET, FOX) at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Following a reconfiguration prior to the start of the 2022 season, Atlanta now races similarly to Daytona despite being a full mile shorter.

This results in unpredictable racing, just like we saw in last weekend's Daytona 500, though there is one caveat to note.

The surface at Atlanta is starting to wear out, making handling more important than just speed in the draft.

From a NASCAR betting perspective, this makes Sunday's race even more difficult to handicap, so I'm not interested in locking in a big betting card right now.

I am, however, taking a small position on an extreme long shot for Sunday's race.

NASCAR Pick for Atlanta

*NASCAR odds as of Thursday

Josh Williams will be making his fourth career Cup Series start on Sunday, and his previous three results were nothing to write home about.

Williams has never finished better than 25th, with his previous races comprised of two road courses and the Bristol dirt race.

But what makes him interesting to me is the equipment he'll now be driving.

Williams will be behind the wheel of Kaulig Racing's No. 16 car, which finished sixth in the Daytona 500 on Monday with AJ Allmendinger behind the wheel.

To be fair, Allmendinger is a very experienced superspeedway racer at this point in his career while Williams is making his first Cup Series superspeedway start.

However, Williams does have plenty of experience in his own right having made 187 XFINITY Series starts.

In fact, Williams finished ninth at Atlanta in the XFINITY Series last summer, so he has had some success here recently.

Plus, I'm bullish on the capabilities of Kaulig Racing's No. 16 car, which scored three top-10 finishes in seven combined races at Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega since the start of last season with Allmendinger behind the wheel.

Do I expect Williams to be Allmendinger this weekend? Not at all.

But the drop from Allmendinger's 65-1 odds last week at Daytona to Williams' 250-1 odds – only BJ McLeod's 500-1 price is longer – this week is just too much for a car this good and in a race that could be very random.

With that said, I'm not betting Williams outright, but 8-1 odds (bet365) for the new Kaulig Racing driver to manage a top-10 finish Sunday at Atlanta is good enough for me to take a bite right now.

The pick: Josh Williams for a Top-10 Finish (+800 at bet365)

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