Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are the favorites for Sunday's Goodyear 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1) at Darlington Raceway, according to live NASCAR odds, which shouldn't be surprising to anyone.
Both of these drivers excel at tire-wear tracks and have had plenty of success at Darlington.
From a high level, you really can't go wrong with either of the two, though I'm pairing one with another outright winner to find value at the track dubbed "The Lady in Black."
Here are my two best bets picks for today's Mother's Day race at Darlington.
NASCAR Odds, Best Bets for Darlington
*Odds as of Sunday afternoon
Denny Hamlin (+500) to Win – BetMGM
Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.
Death. Taxes. Denny Hamlin at tire-wear tracks.
If you've been reading my articles recently, you know how much I love Hamlin at tracks that wear out tires.
Darlington is on such a track, so I'm going back to the wishing well (Blink-182 joke).
It should be no surprise that Hamlin excels here, though his recent stats might be misleading.
While posting just the 11th-best average finish at Darlington in the Next Gen era, Hamlin has actually led the most laps while running the third-most fast laps.
The No. 11 Toyota was fast in practice on Saturday and secured a seventh-place starting position in qualifying, so I see little reason to doubt that he'll be among the best cars again on Sunday. BetMGM has him at +500 at the time of this writing.
Brad Keselowski (+1200) to Win – BetMGM
While seeing me betting on Hamlin (again) shouldn't be a surprise, grabbing Brad Keselowski might be.
After an ugly 34th-place finish at Darlington in the spring of 2022, Keselowski has rattled off seventh-, fourth- and sixth-place results in the past three races here.
The driver of the No. 6 RFK Ford was also extremely fast in practice, posting the third-best 20-lap average and the fourth-best 25-lap average, showing that this car has speed as the tires fall off.
And when it comes to Keselowski, perhaps the most important piece of data is his second-place qualifying effort.
This team has struggled in qualifying all season, with a best starting position of just 13th (Martinsville) coming into this weekend's race.
Keselowski has a fast car in race trim, a great starting position and will finally have the luxury of a top pit stall, making his 12-1 price very enticing.
