As the kids would say, it's been a "hot minute" since I wrote a NASCAR betting article.
However, thanks to my own insomnia, a dash of kids waking up comically early and a race that won't get underway until 7 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime), I have all the ingredients needed for a NASCAR prediction piece.
Live NASCAR odds via BetMGM show Denny Hamlin as the race favorite at +350, followed by Christopher Bell (+475), Tyler Reddick (+475), Ty Gibbs (+575) and Kyle Larson (+650).
Cup Series qualifying was rained out on Saturday, setting the starting lineup by the rulebook, which is influencing NASCAR odds for Nashville significantly more than it should, thus creating value if you know where to look.
While qualifying was canceled, there was still plenty of practice on Saturday afternoon, allowing our very own Nick Giffen to dig in with his proprietary and predictive Practice FLAGS metric.
After scanning Giffen's practice analysis, one group bet at +850 odds popped immediately off the page for tonight's race.
Here are the details.
NASCAR Odds, +850 Pick for Sunday
*Odds as of Sunday morning
There is a group bet available at bet365, including Carson Hocevar, Bubba Wallace, Brad Keselowski and Austin Cindric.
And here are the odds of this group compared with each driver's Practice FLAGS ranking:
- Hocevar (+175) — 16th
- Wallace (+200) — 23rd
- Keselowski (+225) — 15th
- Cindric (+850) — 7th
Despite having the longest odds, by far, Cindric had the fastest car of the group in practice.
Yes, the No. 2 Team Penske Ford will start way back in 36th place, but remember, qualifying was rained out, so Cindric's starting position is not a reflection of a lack of speed in the car.
Plus, and this is the most important part, his odds are +850 in a four-driver group!
Could Cindric struggle all day in traffic? Sure.
Could Cindric get caught up in a wreck due to his starting position? Sure.
But at a very enticing +850 price tag, I'm very willing to back a car with plenty of race pace to finish ahead of the three other drivers in this group.
NASCAR Pick: Cindric (+850) to Win Group D — bet365
